17 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Rogelio Livieres
Referee: J. Benitez
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Club Guarani 0-2 Nacional Asuncion.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Club Guarani, 32% draw, 35% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional Asuncion at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Guarani0%Draw3%Nacional Asuncion97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Angel Lucena
45'
🔁Orlando Gaona Lugoout: Hugo Valdez
45'
🔁Angel Lucenaout: Ignacio Bailone
Armando Méndez
57'
🔁Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornellsout: Fernando Fernandez
67'
73'
🔁Josué Colmánout: Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez
75'
⚽Hugo Valdezassist: Hugo Adrián Benítez
🔁Martín Maldonadoout: Thiago Ezequiel Romero
77'
🔁Victor·Cespedesout: Diego·Fernandez
77'
🔁Jorge Recaldeout: Juan Manuel García
77'
🔁Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcanoout: Carlos Arrua
85'
89'
🔁Fabrizio Jaraout: Jordan·Santacruz
90'
Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez
90+3'
⚽Ignacio Bailoneassist: Hugo Valdez

Match stats — Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion

62%Possession38%
16Shots14
4On target7
10Corners6
2.06xG1.45

Goals against chances

Club Guarani0 from 2.06 xGless than the chances were worth
Nacional Asuncion2 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Guarani 4-4-2
  • 31M. MartínezG
  • 4A. MéndezD
  • 2I. SegoviaD
  • 15T. ServínD
  • 33L. AllendeD
  • 34M. MaldonadoM
  • 36L. MartínezM
  • 25G. GómezM
  • 17V. CéspedesM
  • 10M. AñascoF
  • 9J. RecaldeF
Substitutes
  • 16Jonatan Marcelo Benítez OtazúM
  • 21C. ArrúaM
  • 38P. CoroneF
  • 12G. DionisiG
  • 40F. FernándezF
  • 26D. FernándezF
  • 11J. GarcíaF
  • 19A. IbarraD
  • 23M. JacquetD
Coach: F. Arce
Nacional Asuncion 4-1-4-1
  • 30S. RojasG
  • 23C. EspínolaD
  • 3M. CoronelD
  • 5G. BenítezD
  • 29S. VargasD
  • 15Á. Cardozo LucenaM
  • 33O. GaonaM
  • 8F. JaraM
  • 13L. MezaM
  • 10J. ColmánM
  • 9H. BenítezF
Substitutes
  • 20Rodolfo ArguelloD
  • 7I. BailoneF
  • 19L. GonzálezF
  • 36F. PelozoF
  • 32F. PumpidoM
  • 25Roberto Carlos Ramírez AntúnezM
  • 28A. SamudioF
  • 17J. SantacruzM
  • 18I. ValdezF
Coach: V. Bernay

Form going into Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion

Club Guarani

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
  • D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026

Nacional Asuncion

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Club Guarani198742117+431
4Nacional Asuncion199552614+1232

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion

  • 9 August 2026Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 3 May 2026Club Guarani 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 1 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 14 November 2025Club Guarani 0–4 Nacional AsuncionCopa Paraguay
  • 21 September 2025Club Guarani 2–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Nacional Asuncion

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Nacional Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • H. Benítez66
  • I. Valdez61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nacional Asuncion won 2–0 at Club Guarani. The model had made a win for Nacional Asuncion its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Hugo Valdez 75' for Nacional Asuncion, Ignacio Bailone 90+3' for Nacional Asuncion. On expected goals it finished 2.06–1.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Guarani a 18.6% chance to finish in the top four: 28.2% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.4%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

For Nacional Asuncion the question was the chance to win the league, 28.0% going in: 39.8% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.8%, 11.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.