FK Jablonec vs Zlin Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Jablonec 1-1 Zlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 25% Zlin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FK Jablonec at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Zlin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jan HanušG
- 18Martin CedidlaD
- 57Filip NovákD
- 15Dušan PavlovićD
- 7Vakhtang ChanturishviliM
- 13Richard SedláčekM
- 25Sebastian NebylaM
- 16Hugo AhlM
- 17Saidou Alioum MoubarakF
- 19Jan ChramostaF
- 24Dominik HollýF
- 44Lamin JawoF
- 36Garang KuolM
- 8Filip ZorvanM
- 27Filip VechetaF
- 20Jiří SlámaD
- 33Michal KukučkaG
- 14Daniel SoučekD
- 6Nelson OkekeM
- 21Matěj PolidarM
- 17Stanislav DostalG
- 35Ondřej KukučkaD
- 24Jakub ČernínD
- 39Antonín KřapkaD
- 22Michal FukalaD
- 23Miloš KopečnýM
- 19Cletus NombilM
- 8David MachalíkM
- 82Marián PišojaM
- 3Stefan JiríF
- 9Daniel ŠmigaF
- 21David GrygeraD
- 53Tomas HellebrandM
- 88Tomáš PoznarF
- 45Prince Mbatshi MukubaD
- 6Joss DidibaM
- 34Milan KnoblochG
- 26Michal CupakM
- 13Filip DornakM
- 20Frank AppiahM
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Zlin
FK Jablonec
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
- L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026
Zlin
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
- L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Zbrojovka Brno29 August 2026
- L0-1Slovan Liberec22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Plzen15 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Jablonec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zlin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zlin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zlin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 21 |
| 16 | Zlin | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Zlin
- 4 April 2026Zlin 0–3 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 1 November 2025FK Jablonec 1–3 ZlinCzech Liga
- 25 May 2024FK Jablonec 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 20 April 2024FK Jablonec 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 11 November 2023Zlin 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
The result against the call
FK Jablonec and Zlin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Jablonec at 47% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Šmiga 3' for Zlin, Garang Kuol 90' for FK Jablonec. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.39.
How the call on FK Jablonec v Zlin has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is FK Jablonec's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FK Jablonec win47%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Zlin win25%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.