Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Slovácko 2-2 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Slovácko, 29% draw, 24% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Slovácko at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Milan HečaG
- 21Simon SloncikD
- 22Jocelin BehiratcheD
- 4Andrej StojchevskiD
- 2Gigli NdefeM
- 10Michal TrávníkM
- 26Tihomir KostadinovM
- 15Patrik BlahútM
- 20Marek HavlíkF
- 72Lukáš VorlickýF
- 30David PuškáčF
- 18Jan FialaF
- 14Adam AlabiD
- 77Pavel JuroškaM
- 16Gibril SossehM
- 9Alan MarinelliF
- 34Pavel HalouskaG
- 28Leos PriorD
- 19Tomas KralD
- 17Filip HruskaM
- 23Martin JedličkaG
- 17Michal FrydrychD
- 83Roan NoghaD
- 16Maksym DiachukD
- 8Aboubacar TraoreM
- 5Jiří BoulaM
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 34Abdullahi BeweneM
- 28Filip KubalaF
- 7Dantaye GilbertF
- 22Vit SkrkonF
- 3Rhodri SmithD
- 15Václav JurečkaF
- 44Yevgeniy SkybaD
- 81Matúš KmeťD
- 19Filip ŠanclM
- 1Viktor BudinskýG
- 37Matěj ChalušD
- 95Daniel HolzerM
- 21Michal KohútM
Form going into Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava
Slovácko
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Mlada Boleslav22 August 2026
- L1-2Sigma Olomouc15 August 2026
Baník Ostrava
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
- W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
- W1-0Artis16 August 2026
What these results say
- Slovácko did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slovácko | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 10 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava
- 12 May 2026Slovácko 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 1 February 2026Slovácko 2–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 24 August 2025Baník Ostrava 2–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 14 December 2024Baník Ostrava 3–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 18 August 2024Slovácko 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
The result against the call
Slovácko and Baník Ostrava drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Slovácko at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Michal Frydrych (penalty) 25' for Baník Ostrava, Gigli Ndefe 49' for Slovácko, Patrik Blahút 51' for Slovácko, Filip Šancl 87' for Baník Ostrava. On expected goals it finished 1.77–2.72.
How the call on Slovácko v Baník Ostrava has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Slovácko's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Slovácko win47%▲ +10
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Baník Ostrava win24%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Slovácko's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Baník Ostrava's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.