Gagra vs Meshakhte Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Gagra 1-1 Meshakhte.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Gagra, 34% draw, 32% Meshakhte — fair odds of 2.94, 2.94 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gagra at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gagra vs Meshakhte
Line-ups
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 21A. Peikrishvili
- 25WandersonM
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 9D. MujiriF
- 13L. Gobejishvili
- 15N. Slavitski
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
- 34L. Chikhladze
- 35A. Dmitrievich
- 29L. ShovnadzeG
- 23B. ShubitidzeM
- 31Eric PimentelD
- 38I. ZotkoD
- 40L. UgrekhelidzeD
- 13G. BurduliD
- 26B. GabiskiriaD
- 27G. KantariaM
- 22T. SikaloM
- 30M. PyrogovM
- 9I. SikharulidzeF
- 1L. TkeshelashviliG
- 7E. JijavadzeM
- 8G. JamarauliM
- 11M. KvirkviaF
- 16G. GegiaD
- 18T. PatsatsiaM
- 20L. KurdadzeD
- 21G. KvirkveliaM
- 24S. Chkhetiani
Form going into Gagra vs Meshakhte
Gagra
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
Meshakhte
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Rustavi14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
- D2-2Spaeri5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi31 August 2026
What these results say
- Gagra failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gagra conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Gagra had two goals or fewer.
- Meshakhte failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Meshakhte had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gagra | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 32 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gagra vs Meshakhte
- 18 June 2026Meshakhte 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 27 April 2026Gagra 1–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 20 July 2025Meshakhte 2–1 GagraDavid Kipiani Cup
- 21 November 2017Gagra 4–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
- 14 September 2017Meshakhte 0–2 GagraErovnuli Liga 2
- 15 June 2017Gagra 2–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
The result against the call
Gagra and Meshakhte drew 1–1. The goals: Z. Tchavtchanidze 25' for Gagra, M. Kvirkvia 83' for Meshakhte.
How the call on Gagra v Meshakhte has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 34% / 34% / 32%: the biggest move is Gagra's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Gagra win34%▼ −6
- Draw34%▲ +3
- Meshakhte win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.