Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 30% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Istra 1961 at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 4R. KumarD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 13N. SepicD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 8A. MauricM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 9IsaacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 97A. KadusicD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 66M. MomohD
- 5D. HodzicM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 34M. KablarM
- 27D. CelijaF
- 11S. GoricanF
- 1R. JosipovicG
- 2F. BrautD
- 32J. FilipovicD
- 15D. StevanovicD
- 5G. CostaD
- 66J. FriganM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 20L. VrzicM
- 9P. MijicF
- 25B. BogojevicM
- 10F. BrodicM
- 30D. ZarkovG
- 71D. MatijasG
- 45S. PericD
- 34I. CvijanovicD
- 24D. PavicicM
- 4K. CustovicM
- 7O. BakicM
- 8J. PranjicF
- 67T. PrgometM
Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
HNK Gorica
All competitions we cover
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
What these results say
- Istra 1961 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Istra 1961 had three goals or more.
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
- 27 April 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 21 February 2026Istra 1961 0–2 HNK GoricaHNL
- 23 November 2025HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 August 2025Istra 1961 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 12 April 2025HNK Gorica 3–2 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Gorica won 1–0 at Istra 1961. The model had leaned towards a win for Istra 1961 at 42% and given a win for HNK Gorica 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: J. Pranjic 90' for HNK Gorica. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.51.
How the call on Istra 1961 v HNK Gorica has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is HNK Gorica's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Istra 1961 win42%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- HNK Gorica win30%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.