1 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 2-0 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gimnasia Mendoza, 19% draw, 49% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.13, 5.26 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union Santa Fe at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia Mendoza99%Draw1%Union Santa Fe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Esteban Fernández
7'
Facundo Lencioni
14'
•Facundo Lencioni
45+1'
⚽A. Modica (pen)
45'
🔁S. Rodriguezout: L. Cingolani
46'
🔁E. Fernandezout: G. Guiffrey
46'
⚽A. Modicaassist: F. Lencioni
50'
59'
🔁J. Mosqueiraout: M. Estigarribia
67'
🔁L. Vargasout: J. Pintado
67'
🔁L. Ayalaout: B. Pitton
🔁F. Antoniniout: N. Barboza
76'
🔁A. Modicaout: I. Sabatini
80'
80'
🔁M. Aguirreout: B. Cuello
80'
🔁I. Malcorraout: E. Ramirez
🔁J. Francoout: L. Paredes
88'

Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

52%Possession48%
15Shots13
7On target4
9Corners5
1.71xG1.43

Goals against chances

Gimnasia Mendoza2 from 1.71 xGabout what the chances were worth
Union Santa Fe0 from 1.43 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-3-1-2
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 22J. FrancoD
  • 42L. CarreraD
  • 4E. MunozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 30E. FernandezM
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 11S. RodriguezF
  • 9A. ModicaF
Substitutes
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 33B. AndradaF
  • 7L. CingolaniF
  • 28T. O'ConnorM
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 10N. RomanoF
  • 15U. SanchezM
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 32L. ParedesD
Coach: Ariel Broggi
Union Santa Fe 4-1-3-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 35L. VargasD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 10I. MalcorraM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
  • 31M. AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 29S. VeraM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 36M. AimarD
  • 43E. RamirezF
  • 12B. PittonD
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

Gimnasia Mendoza

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
  • W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026

Union Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122
9Union Santa Fe166372424021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

  • 3 February 2026Union Santa Fe 4–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 April 2024Union Santa Fe 1–2 Gimnasia MendozaCopa Argentina

Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Union Santa Fe

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gimnasia Mendoza beat Union Santa Fe 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Santa Fe at 49% and given a win for Gimnasia Mendoza 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Modica (penalty) 45' for Gimnasia Mendoza, A. Modica 50' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.43.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.