Greece vs Germany UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Greece 0-0 Germany.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Greece, 30% draw, 40% Germany — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Germany at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Greece vs Germany
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Konstantinos TzolakisG
- 17Manolis SaliakasD
- 4Konstantinos MavropanosD
- 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
- 21Kostas TsimikasD
- 7Giorgos MasourasM
- 6Dimitris KourbelisM
- 20Christos ZafeirisM
- 23Alexandros KyziridisM
- 14Vangelis PavlidisF
- 8Fotis IoannidisF
- 15Athanasios AndroutsosM
- 19Konstantinos KaretsasM
- 16Christos MouzakitisM
- 5Panagiotis RetsosD
- 11Charalampos KostoulasF
- 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
- 13Christos MandasG
- 2Triantafyllos TsaprasM
- 18Giannis MichailidisD
- 1Jonas UrbigG
- 13Philipp TreuD
- 2Malick ThiawD
- 3Waldemar AntonD
- 22David RaumD
- 15Lennart KarlM
- 8Tom BischofM
- 5Aleksandar PavlovićM
- 9Derry ScherhantM
- 17Florian WirtzF
- 10Jonathan BurkardtF
- 7Said El MalaM
- 11Nick WoltemadeF
- 14Mika BaurM
- 19Bambasé ContéM
- 12Finn DahmenG
- 21Noah AtuboluG
- 4Finn JeltschD
- 16Ridle BakuD
- 18Maximilian MittelstädtD
Form going into Greece vs Germany
Greece
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2Netherlands1 October 2026
- W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026
Germany
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0Serbia1 October 2026
- L0-1Greece27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Greece vs Germany
- 27 September 2026Germany 0–1 GreeceUEFA Nations League
- 7 June 2024Germany 2–1 GreeceFriendlies
- 22 June 2012Germany 4–2 GreeceEuro Championship
The result against the call
Greece and Germany drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Germany at 40% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.38.
How the call on Greece v Germany has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 25% / 30% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Greece's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Greece win30%▲ +5
- Draw30%=
- Germany win40%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.