4 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Farense vs Chaves Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estádio de São Luís, Faro
Referee: Bruno Miguel do Carmo Vieira
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Farense 4-0 Chaves.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Farense, 28% draw, 26% Chaves — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Farense at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Farense99%Draw1%Chaves0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nermin Zolotic
3'
⚽André Candeiasassist: Mattheus de Andrade Gama Oliveira
6'
⚽Gonçalo Silvaassist: André Candeias
45+2'
46'
🔁Marcos André Paulino Maiaout: Gabriel Souza da Silva
46'
🔁Dru Yearwoodout: mohamed fofana
46'
🔁Gilberto Garcíaout: Pedro Pelágio
⚽Claudio Falcãoassist: André Candeias
49'
58'
Tomás Morais Costa
59'
🔁Tomás Morais Costaout: Roberto
59'
🔁Andre Rodriguesout: João Teixeira
🔁Nermin Zoloticout: Rodrigo Borges
60'
🔁Nelson Oliveiraout: Gabriel Barbosa
60'
🔁Joao·Resendeout: Derick Poloni
67'
🔁Mattheus de Andrade Gama Oliveiraout: Joseph N'Duquidi
67'
71'
mohamed fofana
⚽Derick Poloniassist: Sarpreet Singh
80'
🔁Sarpreet Singhout: Rafael Teixeira
82'

Match stats — Farense vs Chaves

51%Possession49%
14Shots8
7On target0
6Corners4

Line-ups

Farense
  • 78Alex PintoD
  • 44N. ZolotićD
  • 10S. SinghM
  • 97F. BuntićG
  • 17André CandeiasF
  • 29Cláudio FalcãoM
  • 22Toni HerreroD
  • 27Mattheus OliveiraM
  • 11Nélson OliveiraF
  • 7João ResendeF
  • 37Gonçalo SilvaD
Substitutes
  • 36B. AntunesD
  • 18Bruno SantosF
  • 3Lucas D'AgrellaD
  • 43Dário MirandaD
  • 5Rodrigo BorgesD
  • 6Derick PoloniD
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
  • 8Miguel MeninoM
  • 15J. Diazongua NfiniguiM
Coach: José Faria
Chaves
  • 1João ValidoG
  • 34Ricardo AlvesD
  • 30CostinhaF
  • 19Gilberto GarcíaM
  • 5Kiko Vilas BoasD
  • 23Léo AlabáD
  • 9Marcos MaiaF
  • 10André RodriguesF
  • 18Wilson TavaresF
  • 29M. TounkaraD
  • 16D. YearwoodM
Substitutes
  • 17RobertoF
  • 11Pedro PelágioM
  • 8João TeixeiraM
  • 2A. HerbertD
  • 88M. GudžulićG
  • 99GBF
  • 80mohamed fofanaM
  • 7R. EsajasD
  • 4Bruno RodriguesD
Coach: Vitor Martins

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Farense104331714+315
17Chaves102261121-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Farense vs Chaves

  • 22 February 2026Chaves 2–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
  • 28 September 2025Farense 0–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 4 February 2024Chaves 1–1 FarensePrimeira Liga
  • 26 August 2023Farense 5–0 ChavesPrimeira Liga
  • 30 April 2022Farense 1–2 ChavesSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Farense and Chaves

Farense

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Silva10
  • S. Singh10

Chaves

GoalsAssists

  • André Rodrigues10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Farense beat Chaves 4–0. The model had made a win for Farense its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: André Candeias 6' for Farense, Gonçalo Silva 45+2' for Farense, Claudio Falcão 49' for Farense, Derick Poloni 80' for Farense.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.