Netherlands vs Serbia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Netherlands, 27% draw, 25% Serbia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Netherlands at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Netherlands vs Serbia
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 22D. DumfriesD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 20T. KoopmeinersD
- 15M. van de VenD
- 8R. GravenberchM
- 18J. VeermanM
- 7C. SummervilleM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 10N. LangM
- 17M. MeerdinkF
- 23M. FlekkenG
- 13R. RoefsG
- 12J. TimberD
- 5N. AkeD
- 3J. HatoD
- 6Q. TimberM
- 2J. FrimpongD
- 19K. TaylorM
- 21G. ZechielM
- 23V. Milinkovic-SavicG
- 2K. NedeljkovicD
- 19S. GudeljD
- 15S. BabicD
- 3S. PavlovicD
- 17A. TerzicD
- 21L. SamardzicM
- 22S. LukicM
- 7A. StankovicM
- 18M. CvetkovicF
- 10D. TadicF
- 1D. RosicG
- 12F. StankovicG
- 16S. ErakovicD
- 4O. MimovicD
- 13N. SimicD
- 6N. GudeljM
- 5N. MaksimovicM
- 20V. DragojevicM
- 11F. KosticM
Form going into Netherlands vs Serbia
Netherlands
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2away to Greece1 October 2026
- W2-1away to Serbia27 September 2026
- D1-1Germany24 September 2026
Serbia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2away to Germany1 October 2026
- L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
- L1-2Greece24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 11 |
| 4 | Serbia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Serbia
- 27 September 2026Serbia 1–2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Netherlands and Serbia
Netherlands
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders41
Serbia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Netherlands beat Serbia 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Netherlands at 48%. The goals: T. Koopmeiners 31' for Netherlands, M. Cvetkovic 35' for Serbia, J. Zirkzee 72' for Netherlands.
How the call on Netherlands v Serbia has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Netherlands's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Netherlands win48%▼ −5
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Serbia win25%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.