4 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Portugal vs Norway UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Estádio do Dragão, Porto
Referee: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Portugal 2-1 Norway.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Portugal, 28% draw, 32% Norway — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portugal at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portugal95%Draw5%Norway0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

João Cancelo
12'
36'
⚽Kristoffer Ajerassist: Martin Ødegaard
⚽João Canceloassist: Nuno Mendes
38'
🔁João Palhinhaout: Rúben Neves
63'
🔁João Canceloout: Diogo Dalot
63'
67'
🔁Erling Haalandout: Jørgen Strand Larsen
74'
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Oscar Bobb
⚽Gonçalo Ramosassist: João Félix
79'
Francisco Conceição
86'
Francisco Conceição
86'
Francisco Conceição
86'
🔁Vitinhaout: Bernardo Silva
86'
87'
🔁Patrick Bergout: Thelo Aasgaard
Bruno Fernandes
88'
🔁Bruno Fernandesout: Francisco Trincão
90'
🔁João Félixout: Nuno Tavares
90'

Match stats — Portugal vs Norway

59%Possession41%
20Shots9
7On target3
6Corners4

Line-ups

Portugal 4-1-3-2
  • 1Diogo CostaG
  • 20João CanceloD
  • 3Rúben DiasD
  • 13Renato VeigaD
  • 19Nuno MendesD
  • 6João PalhinhaM
  • 14Francisco ConceiçãoM
  • 23VitinhaM
  • 8Bruno FernandesM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
  • 11João FélixF
Substitutes
  • 2Diogo DalotD
  • 21Rúben NevesM
  • 10Bernardo SilvaM
  • 5Nuno TavaresD
  • 16Francisco TrincãoF
  • 22Samuel SoaresG
  • 12Rui SilvaG
  • 4Tomás AraújoD
  • 15João NevesM
Norway 4-2-3-1
  • 13Egil SelvikG
  • 7Fredrik AursnesD
  • 3Kristoffer AjerD
  • 4Leo ØstigårdD
  • 5David Møller WolfeD
  • 8Sander BergeM
  • 6Patrick BergM
  • 21Andreas SchjelderupM
  • 10Martin ØdegaardM
  • 20Antonio NusaM
  • 9Erling HaalandF
Substitutes
  • 11Jørgen Strand LarsenF
  • 22Oscar BobbM
  • 19Thelo AasgaardM
  • 1Ørjan NylandG
  • 12Sander TangvikG
  • 2Odin Luras BjørtuftD
  • 14Fredrik SjøvoldD
  • 15Sondre LangåsD
  • 16Marcus PedersenD
Coach: Stale Solbakken

Form going into Portugal vs Norway

Portugal

UEFA Nations League

  • W4-2away to Denmark1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Norway27 September 2026
  • W1-0Wales24 September 2026

Norway

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to Wales1 October 2026
  • L1-2Portugal27 September 2026
  • W3-2Denmark24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Portugal5401108+212
3Norway52039906

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portugal vs Norway

  • 27 September 2026Norway 1–2 PortugalUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Portugal and Norway

Portugal

GoalsAssists

  • João Félix31
  • Gonçalo Ramos31

Norway

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portugal beat Norway 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Portugal at 40%. The goals: Kristoffer Ajer 36' for Norway, João Cancelo 38' for Portugal, Gonçalo Ramos 79' for Portugal. Sent off: Francisco Conceição (Portugal) 86'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.