Wales vs Denmark UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Wales 0-1 Denmark.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Wales, 29% draw, 43% Denmark — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Denmark at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wales vs Denmark
Line-ups
- 12Danny WardG
- 3Neco WilliamsD
- 6Ben CabangoD
- 4Ben DaviesD
- 15Jay DaSilvaD
- 5Ethan AmpaduM
- 17Jordan JamesM
- 11Brennan JohnsonM
- 10Liam CullenM
- 19Sorba ThomasM
- 9Lewis KoumasF
- 22Josh SheehanM
- 18Mark HarrisF
- 8Wes BurnsF
- 23Joel ColwillM
- 13Kieffer MooreF
- 1David CornellG
- 21Tom KingG
- 2Chris MephamD
- 14Connor RobertsD
- 16Mads HermansenG
- 13Rasmus KristensenD
- 2Joachim AndersenD
- 3Oliver ProvstgaardD
- 5Joakim MæhleD
- 8Gustav IsaksenM
- 21Morten HjulmandM
- 23Pierre-Emile HøjbjergM
- 20Mohamed DaramyM
- 9Rasmus HøjlundF
- 7Victor FroholdtF
- 11Andreas Skov OlsenF
- 18Anton GaaeiD
- 15Mathias KvistgaardenF
- 19Kasper HøghF
- 1Andreas JungdalG
- 22Filip JørgensenG
- 4Lucas HøgsbergD
- 6Victor NelssonD
- 10Thomas JørgensenM
Form going into Wales vs Denmark
Wales
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Norway1 October 2026
- L0-2away to Denmark27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Portugal24 September 2026
Denmark
UEFA Nations League
- L2-4Portugal1 October 2026
- W2-0Wales27 September 2026
- L2-3away to Norway24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wales | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 2 | Denmark | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wales vs Denmark
- 27 September 2026Denmark 2–0 WalesUEFA Nations League
- 26 June 2021Wales 0–4 DenmarkEuro Championship
- 16 November 2018Wales 1–2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
- 9 September 2018Denmark 2–0 WalesUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Wales and Denmark
Wales
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Denmark
GoalsAssists
- R. Højlund50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Denmark won 1–0 at Wales. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Denmark at 43%. The goal: Rasmus Højlund (penalty) 75' for Denmark.
How the call on Wales v Denmark has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Wales's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Wales win28%▼ −6
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Denmark win43%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.