Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
The model makes it 56% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 24% draw, 20% Ironi Kiryat Shmona — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.48, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.04.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hapoel Beer Sheva wins, grey are draws, red are Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan29 August 2026
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- 24 January 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 3–2 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 18 October 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 14 December 2024Hapoel Beer Sheva 5–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 26 August 2024Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 12 March 2023Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 13 November 2022Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- M. Kna'an1 goals1 assists
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hapoel Beer Sheva carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.2 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.04 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.73 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.57 and 2.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1172 correct results out of 2485 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 1.04 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Hapoel Beer Sheva's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.09 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.