Maccabi Haifa
vs
Ironi Tiberias
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Haifa 2–0 Ironi Tiberias
The model makes it 52% Maccabi Haifa, 26% draw, 22% Ironi Tiberias — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Haifa 2.11, Ironi Tiberias 0.95.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Maccabi Haifa wins, grey are draws, red are Ironi Tiberias wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias
Maccabi Haifa
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Ramat Gan22 August 2026
Ironi Tiberias
- D2-2Hapoel Jerusalem15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 13 | Ironi Tiberias | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias
- 4 August 2026Maccabi Haifa 4–2 Ironi TiberiasToto Cup Ligat Al
- 31 January 2026Maccabi Haifa 3–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 25 October 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–1 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 15 December 2024Ironi Tiberias 0–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 24 August 2024Maccabi Haifa 4–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Haifa and Ironi Tiberias
Maccabi Haifa
- Bruninho3 goals1 assists
- E. Azoulay2 goals
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maccabi Haifa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.37 for Ironi Tiberias. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Maccabi Haifa and 0.95 for Ironi Tiberias. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Haifa rate 0.90 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Tiberias rate 0.54 and 1.44.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1172 correct results out of 2485 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Maccabi Haifa against 0.95 for Ironi Tiberias. Maccabi Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.44 for Ironi Tiberias.