Heart of Midlothian vs Hibernian League Cup prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 1-2 Hibernian.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Heart of Midlothian, 24% draw, 19% Hibernian — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Heart of Midlothian at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Rangers28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Motherwell25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor22 October 2026
- L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
- D1-1FC Nordsjaelland15 October 2026
Hibernian
Premiership
- D1-1away to St Mirren28 October 2026
- L1-2Celtic25 October 2026
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Hibernian
- 3 September 2026Hibernian 1–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 26 April 2026Hibernian 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 10 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 27 December 2025Hibernian 3–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 4 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 2 March 2025Hibernian 2–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
No leading scorers listed yet.
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hibernian won 2–1 at Heart of Midlothian. The model had leaned towards a win for Heart of Midlothian at 57% and given a win for Hibernian 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: C. Braga 4' for Heart of Midlothian, M. Boyle 19' for Hibernian, J. McGrath 42' for Hibernian.
How the call on Heart of Midlothian v Hibernian has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 60% / 23% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Heart of Midlothian's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Heart of Midlothian win57%▼ −3
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Hibernian win19%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Heart of Midlothian's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Hibernian's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.