Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Independiente del Valle 2-0 LDU de Quito.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Independiente del Valle, 24% draw, 20% LDU de Quito — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
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Has the model earned this number?
Independiente del Valle at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. QuintanaG
- 13Daykol Alejandro Romero PadillaD
- 14M. CarabajalD
- 5R. SchunkeD
- 15G. CortézD
- 16R. BrionesM
- 6J. AlcívarM
- 10J. SornozaM
- 52Y. VásquezF
- 9C. GonzálezF
- 18Steven Daniel Góngora PalaciosF
- 4J. EspinozaD
- 50J. CueroF
- 19L. LoorD
- 51Kelvin Jeremía Montaño ArroyoM
- 32J. MéndezM
- 8Y. OchoaM
- 70M. PeraltaG
- 28H. QuintanaM
- 99D. ReascoF
- 1G. ValleG
- 30G. AllalaD
- 44L. SegoviaD
- 33Leonel Enrique Quiñónez PadillaD
- 57M. WeigandtM
- 8J. PretellM
- 20F. CornejoM
- 23Yerlin QuinonezM
- 7L. RodríguezM
- 13J. CorozoF
- 11M. EstradaF
- 31J. RodrÃguezM
- 18Washington Nahir Olvera ZambranoM
- 3Richard Alexander Mina CaicedoD
- 5Sebastían González BaqueroM
- 22Alexander Domínguez CarabalíG
- 28J. CueroD
- 67J. CarabalíM
- 16DeyversonF
- 10Alexander Antonio Alvarado CarrielM
Form going into Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro
- D0-0Universidad Catolica Quito23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro
- L1-2Macara24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Aucas17 October 2026
- W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 37 | +44 | 84 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
Independiente del Valle won the last one 2–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
| LDU de Quito | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 1.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Liga ProIndependiente del Valle 2–0 LDU de Quito - 8 Aug 2026
Liga ProLDU de Quito 0–2 Independiente del Valle - 19 Apr 2026
Liga ProIndependiente del Valle 0–2 LDU de Quito - 10 Dec 2025
Liga ProIndependiente del Valle 0–0 LDU de Quito - 29 Nov 2025
Liga ProLDU de Quito 2–1 Independiente del Valle - 22 Jun 2025
Liga ProLDU de Quito 1–1 Independiente del Valle - 23 Feb 2025
Liga ProIndependiente del Valle 1–1 LDU de Quito
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Independiente del Valle's attack rates 71% above LDU de Quito's, and LDU de Quito concede 10% fewer than Independiente del Valle. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 1.13 | 1.26 |
| LDU de Quito | 0.66 | 1.14 |
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- C. González111
- D. Reasco94
- M. Perelló84
LDU de Quito
GoalsAssists
- M. Estrada72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente del Valle beat LDU de Quito 2–0. The model had made a win for Independiente del Valle its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios 67' for Independiente del Valle, Carlos González 69' for Independiente del Valle. On expected goals it finished 1.02–0.61.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.