1 November 2026, 10:00 UTC

FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow Premier League prediction & result

Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
Referee: Igor Kaplenkov
Full time0 – 0

Final score: FC Orenburg 0-0 CSKA Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Orenburg, 29% draw, 36% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA Moscow at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Orenburg3%Draw93%CSKA Moscow4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jhon Alex Palacios
12'
Ruslan Kul
31'
34'
Matvey Lukin
Damian Puebla
39'
•Damian Puebla
51'
56'
🔁Tamerlan Musaevout: Luciano Gondou
Ildar Akhmetzyanov
57'
Evgeniy Bolotov
59'
60'
Danil Krugovoy
Jordhy Thompson
78'
78'
Ivan Oleynikov
Bogdan Ovsyannikov
79'
🔁Damian Pueblaout: Andrey Kasadzhikov
79'
81'
🔁Ivan Oleynikovout: Matheus Alves
🔁Jordhy Thompsonout: Renat Golybin
82'
🔁Dmitriy Rybchinskiyout: Anton Lukashov
82'
Gedeon Guzina
87'
88'
🔁Kirill Glebovout: Henrique Carmo
🔁Gedeon Guzinaout: Egor Nazarenko
90+3'
90+9'
Aleksandr Vakulich

Match stats — FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow

42%Possession58%
13Shots12
5On target4
4Corners5
1.17xG0.69

Goals against chances

FC Orenburg0 from 1.17 xGless than the chances were worth
CSKA Moscow0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 24M. SivisD
  • 6J. PalaciosD
  • 5A. TataevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 78R. KulM
  • 57E. BolotovM
  • 10J. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 35A. DegtevG
  • 27Renat GolybinM
  • 7J. GonzálezF
  • 77A. KasadzhikovF
  • 38A. KasimovD
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 22A. LukashovD
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov
CSKA Moscow 5-3-2
  • 39M. BoriskoG
  • 21M. AzziD
  • 90M. LukinD
  • 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
  • 79M. ZeaD
  • 3D. KrugovoyD
  • 10I. OblyakovM
  • 31M. KislyakM
  • 19I. OleynikovM
  • 17K. GlebovF
  • 11T. MusaevF
Substitutes
  • 85Egor BesaevG
  • 62I. FirovF
  • 32L. GondouF
  • 37HenriqueM
  • 18D. KozlovM
  • 7Matheus AlvesM
  • 20Matija PopovicM
  • 49V. ToropG
  • 84A. VakulichM
Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov

Form going into FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow

FC Orenburg

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Akhmat23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rodina Moskva19 October 2026
  • W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026

CSKA Moscow

Premier League

  • W2-0Spartak Moscow25 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Dynamo18 October 2026
  • W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Orenburg143831414017
5CSKA Moscow147522316+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow

  • 11 July 2026FC Orenburg 2–0 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 November 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 21 July 2025FC Orenburg 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 12 April 2025FC Orenburg 0–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 4 August 2024CSKA Moscow 5–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 2 March 2024CSKA Moscow 1–1 OrenburgPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and CSKA Moscow

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

CSKA Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • I. Oblyakov71
  • I. Oleynikov34
  • K. Glebov31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Orenburg and CSKA Moscow drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for CSKA Moscow at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.17–0.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Orenburg a 5.5% chance to finish in the top four: 8.3% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.1%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

For CSKA Moscow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.7% going in: 71.8% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 56.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.3%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Orenburg v CSKA Moscow has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is FC Orenburg's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Orenburg win35%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. CSKA Moscow win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.