1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

AC Oulu vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

OTC Stadion, Oulu
Referee: Matti Roth
Full time2 – 0

Final score: AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% AC Oulu, 27% draw, 46% KuPS — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KuPS at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Oulu99%Draw1%KuPS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Camilo Triana
9'
🔁Elias Kallioout: Lamine Ghezali
45'
45'
🔁Saku Savolainenout: Akseli Puukko
45'
🔁Tommi Jyryout: Julius Eskesen
Iiro Mendolin
62'
66'
🔁Samuel Pasanenout: Saku Heiskanen
66'
🔁Gustav Engvallout: Ayman Aiki
⚽Rasmus Karjalainenassist: Lamine Ghezali
71'
🔁Rasmus Karjalainenout: Roope Riski
77'
82'
🔁Piotr Parzyszekout: Joslyn Lutumba Luyeye
Roope Riski
85'
🔁Juuso Mäkeläinenout: Matias Ojala
89'

Match stats — AC Oulu vs KuPS

37%Possession63%
11Shots19
4On target5
1Corners10
1.1xG0.92

Goals against chances

AC Oulu2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
KuPS0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Oulu 4-4-2
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 30J. MakelainenM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
Substitutes
  • 11L. GhezaliF
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 14N. JokelainenM
  • 36J. LotvonenM
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 62Tobias BackmanG
Coach: M. Isokangas
KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 23A. LötjönenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 9G. EngvallM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
Substitutes
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaF
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 15A. AikiF
Coach: M. Nuutinen

Form going into AC Oulu vs KuPS

AC Oulu

Finnish Premier League

  • D0-0VPS28 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Gnistan24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Inter Turku17 October 2026

KuPS

Finnish Premier League

  • D1-1Gnistan29 October 2026
  • D2-2away to HJK Helsinki25 October 2026
  • W2-0VPS18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4AC Oulu32146124140+148
3KuPS32141174633+1353

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs KuPS

  • 8 October 2026KuPS 0–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 2 May 2026AC Oulu 2–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 22 April 2026KuPS 3–2 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 28 February 2026AC Oulu 5–0 KuPSLeague Cup
  • 5 December 2025KuPS 1–2 AC OuluFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 July 2025AC Oulu 2–2 KuPSFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: AC Oulu and KuPS

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen56

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Oulu beat KuPS 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for KuPS at 46% and given a win for AC Oulu 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Camilo Triana 9' for AC Oulu, Rasmus Karjalainen 71' for AC Oulu. On expected goals it finished 1.10–0.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KuPS a 8.5% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 16.4% after a win, 1.4% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.