14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Holstein Kiel, 25% draw, 26% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Holstein Kiel at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Holstein Kiel5%Draw92%FC St. Pauli3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽M. Kaars
45+2'
Mathias Rasmussen
45'
⚽T. Haraassist: A. Pyrka
Timon Weiner
47'
Guillermo Balzi
47'
49'
Joel Chima Fujita
⚽P. Harresassist: A. Bernhardsson
56'
64'
🔁J. Fujitaout: E. Smith
64'
🔁T. Haraout: R. Jones
Kasper Davidsen
72'
73'
Ricky-Jade Jones
🔁G. Balziout: J. Therkelsen
74'
80'
🔁B. Hrgotaout: S. Banks
85'
🔁M. Kaarsout: S. Klein
🔁L. Parduziout: F. Alidou
86'
⚽J. Therkelsenassist: P. Harres
88'

Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli

64%Possession36%
19Shots13
6On target6
5Corners5
2.09xG2.56

Goals against chances

Holstein Kiel2 from 2.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC St. Pauli2 from 2.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel 4-1-4-1
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 13I. NekicD
  • 26D. ZecD
  • 40L. ParduziD
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 20A. KapralikM
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 11A. BernhardssonM
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 41L. RothenhagenG
  • 6M. IvezicD
  • 3N. TakahashiD
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 30T. TasdelenM
  • 17F. AlidouF
  • 22M. ReimersM
Coach: Tim Walter
FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. VollG
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 18T. HaraF
Substitutes
  • 33D. MitovG
  • 25A. DzwigalaD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 8E. SmithM
  • 2R. JanssonD
  • 22S. KleinM
  • 14E. AhlstrandM
  • 17S. BanksF
  • 26R. JonesF
Coach: Marcel Rapp

Form going into Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli

Holstein Kiel

  • D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026

FC St. Pauli

  • D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Holstein Kiel503269-33
9FC St. Pauli51317706

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli

  • 14 August 2026Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 12 April 2025Holstein Kiel 1–2 FC St. PauliBundesliga
  • 29 November 2024FC St. Pauli 3–1 Holstein KielBundesliga
  • 23 February 2024Holstein Kiel 3–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 17 September 2023FC St. Pauli 5–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 19 May 2023Holstein Kiel 3–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli

Holstein Kiel

  • P. Harres3 goals2 assists

FC St. Pauli

  • T. Hara2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.