FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Orenburg 1-1 Lokomotiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% FC Orenburg, 29% draw, 46% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv
Line-ups
- 1Bogdan OvsyannikovG
- 24Maxime SivisD
- 6Jhon PalaciosD
- 5Aleksey TataevD
- 26Emil TsenovD
- 78Ruslan KulM
- 57Evgeniy BolotovM
- 8Damián PueblaM
- 11Egor NazarenkoM
- 20Dmitry RybchinskiyM
- 30Gedeon GuzinaF
- 77Andrey KasadzhikovF
- 19Alexandre JesusF
- 27Renat GolybinM
- 3Danila VedernikovD
- 21Benjamín BoschF
- 95Andrey KhodanovichG
- 59Maksim SyshchenkoD
- 38Artem KasimovD
- 65Ivan IvashchenkoM
- 22Ilya LantratovG
- 24Maksim NenakhovD
- 5Gerzino NyamsiD
- 14Georgi DzhikiyaD
- 45Aleksandr SilyanovD
- 85Evgeniy MorozovM
- 7Zelimkhan BakaevM
- 10Aleksey BatrakovM
- 75Ilya EremeevM
- 19Aleksandr RudenkoM
- 11Vadim RakovF
- 9Sergey PinyaevM
- 99Ruslan MyalkovskiyF
- 17Nikita SaltykovM
- 3Lucas FassonD
- 8Aleksandr KovalenkoM
- 16Daniil VeselovG
- 59Egor PogostnovD
- 32Lucas VeraM
- 88Mikhail ShchetininM
Form going into FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv
FC Orenburg
- D1-1away to Rubin9 August 2026
Lokomotiv
- D0-0Akron8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv
- 14 August 2026FC Orenburg 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 18 April 2026FC Orenburg 0–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 9 November 2025Lokomotiv 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 3 May 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 1 October 2024Lokomotiv 2–1 FC OrenburgCup
- 14 September 2024FC Orenburg 2–4 LokomotivPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Lokomotiv
FC Orenburg
- A. Kasadzhikov2 goals1 assists
- R. Kul2 goals1 assists
Lokomotiv
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.