14 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Galatasaray vs Çorum FK Süper Lig prediction & result

Rams Park, Istanbul
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Galatasaray 2-2 Çorum FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Galatasaray, 20% draw, 17% Çorum FK — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Galatasaray at 63% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Galatasaray0%Draw9%Çorum FK91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yunus Akgün
32'
⚽V. Osimhenassist: L. Torreira
53'
54'
🔁M. Karlsbakkout: M. Diomande
59'
⚽A. Kyziridisassist: Fredy
61'
⚽J. Ramirez
68'
🔁S. Gurlerout: M. Thiam
70'
Alexandros Kyziridis
🔁I. Jakobsout: E. Elmali
71'
🔁D. Sanchezout: M. Lemina
71'
76'
🔁H. Smolcicout: A. Sengul
76'
🔁Fredyout: A. Ildiz
🔁A. Bardakciout: K. Karatas
84'
🔁L. Torreiraout: I. Gundogan
84'
🔁L. Saneout: K. Ayhan
90'
⚽V. Osimhenassist: Gabriel Sara
90'

Match stats — Galatasaray vs Çorum FK

64%Possession36%
38Shots8
13On target3
8Corners1
2.9xG0.61

Goals against chances

Galatasaray2 from 2.90 xGless than the chances were worth
Çorum FK2 from 0.61 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1U. CakirG
  • 7R. SallaiD
  • 6D. SanchezD
  • 42A. BardakciD
  • 4I. JakobsD
  • 34L. TorreiraM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 10L. SaneM
  • 11Y. AkgunM
  • 53B. YilmazM
  • 45V. OsimhenF
Substitutes
  • 24J. YilmazG
  • 90W. SingoD
  • 17E. ElmaliD
  • 23K. AyhanD
  • 88K. KaratasD
  • 91A. UnyayD
  • 20I. GundoganM
  • 99M. LeminaM
  • 18L. UgochukwuM
Coach: Okan Buruk
Çorum FK 4-1-4-1
  • 1Marcos FelipeG
  • 11G. SazdagiD
  • 5PenetraD
  • 6H. SmolcicD
  • 24A. BorzaD
  • 3B. OzdemirM
  • 7S. GurlerM
  • 8M. KarlsbakkM
  • 16FredyM
  • 89A. KyziridisM
  • 19J. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 18E. ErenturkG
  • 4S. SaatciD
  • 15A. SengulD
  • 30A. IldizM
  • 10M. DiomandeM
  • 9M. ThiamF
  • 22H. BulutD
  • 99H. Abdulkareem
  • 17E. GurlukF
Coach: Cagdas Cavus

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Galatasaray5410136+713
10Çorum FK52121210+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Çorum FK

  • 14 August 2026Galatasaray 2–2 Çorum FKSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Çorum FK

Galatasaray

  • V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
  • Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists

Çorum FK

  • C. Ramírez3 goals1 assists
  • A. Kyziridis3 goals1 assists
  • Ermin Mahmić2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.