SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 23% draw, 28% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Florian HellsternG
- 23Jannik DehmD
- 29Krisztián KeresztesD
- 22Jannis HeuerD
- 27Luca ItterD
- 10Ole PohlmannD
- 8Shinta AppelkampM
- 13Paul WillM
- 6Sacha BanseM
- 30Felix KlausF
- 7Dennis SrbenyF
- 11Aaron KellerM
- 2Lukas ReichD
- 21Mika WallentowitzM
- 42Omar SillahF
- 43Silas PrüfrockG
- 48Jakob KrautkramerD
- 5Maxim DalD
- 17Noah KönigD
- 28Doni ArifiM
- 1Jan ReichertG
- 32Tim JanischD
- 4Alexios KalogeropoulosD
- 20Fynn OttoD
- 41Eric PorstnerD
- 6Adam MarkhievM
- 8Javier FernandezM
- 10Julian JustvanM
- 22Finn Ole BeckerM
- 23Mohamed Ali ZomaM
- 19Piet ScobelF
- 21Giannis MasourasD
- 7Rayan GhriebF
- 18Rafael LubachM
- 35Marc Kornwachs BarjuanD
- 39Adriano GrimaldiF
- 13Robin LisewskiG
- 43Tobias HessD
- 36Kristian MandicD
- 28Can Yahya MoustfaF
Form going into SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- 15 August 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–4 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 3 May 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 20251. FC Nürnberg 2–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 16 March 20251. FC Nürnberg 3–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 20 October 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–4 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 25 February 2024SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- F. Klaus5 goals
1. FC Nürnberg
- M. Zoma5 goals
- J. Justvan3 goals1 assists
- P. Scobel3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.