14 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

VPS vs Turku PS Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Full time1 – 3

Final score: VPS 1-3 Turku PS.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% VPS, 26% draw, 34% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VPS at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS0%Draw1%Turku PS99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

E. Okereke
28'
🔁J. Muzingaout: H. Salomaa
38'
45'
⚽T. Zaalassist: P. Juvanteny
O. Ogunniyi
45+2'
45+3'
⚽A. Muzaci (pen)
🔁A. Raisanenout: X. Odhiambo
46'
52'
C. Azongnitode
53'
P. Juvanteny
61'
🔁N. Taloout: M. Kauppila
X. Odhiambo
62'
75'
🔁K. Visserout: N. Veinbergs
75'
🔁P. Juvantenyout: L. Ikonen
75'
🔁M. Konkkolaout: L. Ivanovic
⚽X. Odhiamboassist: H. Salomaa
76'
🔁X. Odhiamboout: D. Terrnava
79'
🔁K. Kouassivi-Benissanout: C. Holmelund
79'
80'
⚽N. Veinbergsassist: M. Kauppila
🔁S. Lindholmout: Y. Daoussi
86'
E. Okereke
87'
E. Okereke
87'
90'
🔁T. Zaalout: T. Vakiparta

Line-ups

VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41Mamadou JallohG
  • 2Lassana ManéD
  • 6Emmanuel OkerekeD
  • 19Martti HaukiojaD
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiD
  • 34Antti-Ville RäisänenM
  • 8Paulo LimaM
  • 7Jayden TurfkruierM
  • 27Kevin Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 11Jonathan MuzingaF
  • 14Simon LindholmM
Substitutes
  • 25Henri SalomaaM
  • 20Xavier OdhiamboF
  • 17Dren TerrnavaM
  • 9Casper HolmelundF
  • 24Yassin DaoussiM
  • 12Lucas VäyrynenG
  • 3Razak SimpsonD
  • 23Miika NiemiD
  • 30Joonas VahteraM
Coach: Jussi Nuorela
Turku PS 4-1-4-1
  • 1Elmo HenrikssonG
  • 2Oscar HaggstromD
  • 15Charlemagne AzongnitodeD
  • 14Matej HradeckyD
  • 24Nikolas TaloD
  • 22Timo ZaalM
  • 10Marius KönkköläM
  • 6Pau JuvantenyD
  • 29Albijon MuzaciM
  • 11Elmer VauhkonenM
  • 99Kian VisserF
Substitutes
  • 20Miika KauppilaD
  • 26Lasse IkonenM
  • 9Luke IvanovicF
  • 44Nils VeinbergsF
  • 28Tomi VakipartaM
  • 30Niklas HarjuG
  • 17Atte SihvonenD
  • 7Rasmus HarjanneF
Coach: Ivan Pinol

Form going into VPS vs Turku PS

VPS

  • W3-1away to FF Jaro8 August 2026

Turku PS

  • D1-1away to KuPS9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS229672922+733
8Turku PS228772823+531

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs Turku PS

  • 14 August 2026VPS 1–3 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
  • 30 May 2026Turku PS 1–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • 14 March 2026Turku PS 1–0 VPSFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 October 2021Turku PS 1–3 VPSYkkönen
  • 1 September 2021VPS 1–2 Turku PSYkkönen
  • 5 May 2021Turku PS 1–1 VPSYkkönen

Leading scorers: VPS and Turku PS

VPS

  • L. Smyth5 goals

Turku PS

  • A. Muzaci3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.