6 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs Ilves UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Full time1 – 0

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% HNK Rijeka, 17% draw, 9% Ilves — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Rijeka at 74% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Rijeka98%Draw2%Ilves0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Branko Pavić
11'
⚽N. Jankovicassist: T. Dantas
16'
27'
Jesse Kilo
🔁T. Frukout: S. Vignato
46'
Alfonso Barco
50'
59'
🔁T. Hytonenout: R. Riski
59'
🔁L. Ala-Myllymakiout: O. Multala
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: J. Puljic
71'
🔁T. Dantasout: J. Lasickas
71'
72'
🔁S. Vaisanenout: T. Miettunen
72'
🔁A. Popovitchout: Y. Sacko
75'
Jardell Kanga
83'
🔁J. Kangaout: E. Tamminen
🔁M. Devetakout: G. Rukavina
84'
90+2'
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba
🔁A. Gojakout: I. Cubelic
90'

Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

66%Possession34%
14On target1
9Corners1

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 15G. GrulovicF
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 21J. PuljicF
  • 23J. LasickasD
Coach: Matjaz Kek
Ilves 4-3-3
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 30J. KangaM
  • 9T. HytonenF
  • 13K. WalliusM
Substitutes
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 10R. RiskiF
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 25S. SuvanneD
  • 33Y. Sacko
  • 36R. AhoD
Coach: Joni Lehtonen

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

HNK Rijeka

  • W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

Ilves

  • W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNK Rijeka and Ilves in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5HNK RijekaHNL6321107+311
9IlvesVeikkausliiga2274113437-325

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Veikkausliiga

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

  • 6 August 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Ilves

HNK Rijeka

  • D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
  • T. Fruk2 goals3 assists

Ilves

  • T. Hytönen6 goals
  • J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
  • M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.