13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Qarabag 2-0 Dynamo Kyiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Qarabag, 20% draw, 42% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 2.63, 5.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo Kyiv at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qarabag99%Draw1%Dynamo Kyiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Mouaddibassist: Matheus Silva
12'
29'
Vladyslav Dubinchak
45+4'
Matvii Ponomarenko
Bədavi Hüseynov
62'
⚽O. Kashchukassist: E. Cafarquliyev
69'
🔁E. Cafarquliyevout: B. Langa
72'
🔁J. Mouaddibout: M. Qurbanly
72'
🔁Kady Borgesout: R. Cephas
72'
73'
🔁J. Lonwijkout: M. Shaparenko
73'
🔁E. Guerreroout: O. Tymchyk
73'
🔁B. Redushkoout: V. Kabaev
78'
🔁V. Dubinchakout: S. Ogundana
🔁A. Zoubirout: S. Lobato
81'
83'
🔁V. Rubchynskyiout: V. Buyalskyy
🔁O. Kashchukout: J. Montiel
88'

Match stats — Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv

74%Possession26%
1On target0
1Corners0

Line-ups

Qarabag 4-2-1-3
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 44E. CafarquliyevD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 10A. Zoubir
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 29R. CephasF
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaM
  • 49A. BashirovM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov
Dynamo Kyiv 4-2-3-1
  • 71V. SurkisG
  • 5O. SychD
  • 40K. BilovarD
  • 32T. MykhavkoD
  • 44V. DubinchakD
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 15V. RubchynskyiM
  • 39E. GuerreroF
  • 21J. LonwijkM
  • 70B. RedushkoM
  • 11M. PonomarenkoF
Substitutes
  • 43I. OlkhovyiG
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 14P. LyusinM
  • 16S. OgundanaM
  • 18O. TymchykD
  • 22V. KabaevM
  • 23N. MalyshD
  • 29V. BuyalskyyM
  • 66A. ThiareD
Coach: Igor Kostyuk

Form going into Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv

Qarabag

  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Dynamo Kyiv

  • W1-0Qarabag6 August 2026
  • L0-2away to PAOK30 July 2026
  • L2-3PAOK23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv

  • 13 August 2026Qarabag 2–0 Dynamo KyivUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 6 August 2026Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.