9 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ilves vs Mariehamn Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Tammela Stadium, Tampere
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.

Before kick-off the model made it 95% Ilves, 4% draw, 1% Mariehamn — fair odds of 1.05, 25.00 and 100.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 4-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ilves at 95% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ilves99%Draw1%Mariehamn0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Foster Gyamfi
⚽T. Hytonenassist: J. Kanga
25'
⚽J. Kanga (pen)
45'
🔁J. Kiloout: O. Multala
46'
🔁K. Walliusout: S. Baranov
46'
57'
Noah Nurmi
🔁T. Hytonenout: G. Bamba
57'
Oskari Multala
60'
61'
🔁A. Bergvikout: M. Hyvonen
61'
🔁T. Jakobsenout: A. Larsson
🔁J. Kangaout: E. Tamminen
70'
🔁A. Popovitchout: Y. Sacko
70'
77'
🔁A. Stroudout: A. Huttunen
77'
🔁R. Monteiroout: W. Nunez
85'
Emmanuel Patut
90+3'
🔁E. Patutout: V. Widlund

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 4O. Pettersson
  • 6Y. RaapD
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 30J. KangaM
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 9T. HytonenF
Substitutes
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 10R. RiskiF
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 45E. TamminenF
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 33Y. Sacko
Coach: Joni Lehtonen
Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 4L. RichtnerD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 19F. GyamfiD
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 20E. PatutM
  • 22R. MonteiroM
  • 14A. BergvikM
  • 18A. StroudM
  • 15T. Jakobsen
Substitutes
  • 32M. RiikonenG
  • 8J. HeydenM
  • 64M. HyvonenM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 7A. LarssonF
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 9W. NunezF
  • 23V. WidlundD
Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo

Form going into Ilves vs Mariehamn

Ilves

  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026
  • W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

Mariehamn

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Ilves2274113437-325
12Mariehamn2235141743-2614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ilves vs Mariehamn

  • 9 August 2026Ilves 2–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 18 April 2026Mariehamn 2–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • 31 August 2025Ilves 2–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 27 April 2025Mariehamn 3–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • 11 August 2024Ilves 2–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: Ilves and Mariehamn

Ilves

  • T. Hytönen6 goals
  • J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
  • M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists

Mariehamn

No player in Veikkausliiga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.