Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 0-2 Rosenborg.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lillestrom, 24% draw, 40% Rosenborg — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Pontus DahlbergG
- 2Lars RangerD
- 28Ruben GabrielsenD
- 47Stian KristiansenD
- 11Frederik ElkærD
- 7Karl Linus AlperudM
- 29Ylldren IbrahimajM
- 18Kevin Martin KrygardM
- 14Gustav Kjolstad NyheimM
- 20Felix VáM
- 10Thomas Lehne OlsenF
- 77Fredrik GulbrandsenF
- 15Gustav NordhF
- 6Harald WoxenM
- 1Stephan HagerupG
- 26Yaw PaintsilM
- 3Sturla OttesenD
- 22John KitolanoD
- 5Sander Moen FossD
- 25Seun AkanjiM
- 1Leopold WahlstedtG
- 22Jonas SvenssonD
- 4Mikkel Konradsen CeideD
- 21Tomáš NemčíkD
- 19Adrian Nilsen PereiraD
- 10Ole SelnaesM
- 11Noah SahsahM
- 17Mads BomholtM
- 29Dávid ĎurišM
- 35Emil Konradsen CeideM
- 18Amin ChiakhaF
- 16Aslak WitryD
- 15Jonas MortensenD
- 3Tobias Solheim DahlD
- 14Jesper Reitan-SundeF
- 12Rasmus SandbergG
- 5Håkon VoldenD
- 25Johan Johanessen BakkeM
- 28Elias SlordalM
- 30Maciej SoboczynskiF
Form going into Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Lillestrom
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
Rosenborg
- L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026
- W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Start18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
- 9 August 2026Lillestrom 0–2 RosenborgEliteserien
- 10 May 2026Rosenborg 2–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 15 September 2024Lillestrom 1–1 RosenborgEliteserien
- 21 August 2024Rosenborg 4–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 24 September 2023Lillestrom 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 9 July 2023Rosenborg 1–2 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Rosenborg
Lillestrom
- Vá5 goals5 assists
Rosenborg
- Amin Chiakha12 goals3 assists
- E. Ceïde5 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.