9 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Raatin stadion, Oulu
Full time0 – 1

Final score: AC Oulu 0-1 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 80% AC Oulu, 11% draw, 9% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 1.25, 9.09 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Oulu at 80% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Oulu1%Draw10%HJK Helsinki89%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Markus Arsalo
20'
44'
⚽M. Gueye
🔁A. Koneout: C. Triana
46'
🔁M. Arsaloout: I. Mendolin
49'
63'
Martin Kirilov
🔁L. Ghezaliout: N. Jokelainen
66'
🔁E. Kallioout: K. Jatta
66'
66'
🔁T. Pukkiout: M. Borchers
66'
🔁S. Haaralaout: L. Moller
Kalifa Jatta
77'
Miguel Santos
79'
79'
Ville Tikkanen
80'
Lucas Lingman
80'
🔁M. Gueyeout: A. Ring
80'
🔁A. Cicaleout: T. Mero
88'
🔁K. Simojokiout: L. Montano

Line-ups

AC Oulu 4-3-3
  • 13M. SantosG
  • 22T. KaukuaM
  • 3A. LietsaD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 18A. CassamaM
  • 11L. GhezaliM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 7R. KarjalainenM
  • 32A. KoneM
  • 27E. KallioM
Substitutes
  • 99N. SchulzG
  • 14N. JokelainenM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 5M. PitkanenD
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 20K. JattaM
Coach: Mikko Isokangas
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 32M. Gueye
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 29S. HaaralaF
  • 17M. KirilovM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 1J. OstG
  • 4A. RingM
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 18T. MeroM
  • 5A. NalloD
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 8P. MentuM
Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Form going into AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

AC Oulu

No earlier matches on record this season.

HJK Helsinki

  • D1-1Motherwell6 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Coleraine FC30 July 2026
  • W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AC Oulu2210482525034
3HJK Helsinki2211473627+937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

  • 9 August 2026AC Oulu 0–1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • 11 April 2026HJK Helsinki 0–1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • 14 March 2026AC Oulu 2–1 HJK HelsinkiLeague Cup
  • 21 August 2025HJK Helsinki 1–0 AC OuluSuomen Cup
  • 20 July 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • 14 June 2025AC Oulu 0–4 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki

AC Oulu

  • J. Körkkö2 goals2 assists
  • E. Kallio2 goals

HJK Helsinki

  • M. Borchers4 goals
  • T. Pukki3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.