22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ilves vs VPS Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Ilves 0-1 VPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Ilves, 17% draw, 18% VPS — fair odds of 1.54, 5.88 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ilves at 65% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ilves0%Draw8%VPS92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽S. Lindholmassist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
J. Kanga
38'
🔁L. Ala-Myllymakiout: M. Stjopin
46'
🔁J. Kiloout: J. Veteli
46'
O. Pettersson
67'
69'
Y. Daoussi
71'
🔁A. Raisanenout: D. Terrnava
🔁A. Popovitchout: E. Tamminen
76'
🔁G. Bambaout: S. Baranov
76'
🔁T. Miettunenout: H. Coulibaly
81'
81'
🔁Y. Daoussiout: R. Simpson
81'
🔁S. Lindholmout: C. Holmelund
90'
P. Lima

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12Faris KrkalićG
  • 4Oliver PetterssonD
  • 16Tatu MiettunenD
  • 3Matias RaleD
  • 19Abdoul Goudouss BambaD
  • 15Lauri Ala-MyllymäkiM
  • 14Anton PopovitchM
  • 13Kalle WalliusM
  • 30Jardell KangaM
  • 28Jesse KiloM
  • 9Teemu HytönenF
Substitutes
  • 7Joona VeteliM
  • 8Maksim StjopinM
  • 1Otso VirtanenG
  • 6Yiandro RaapD
  • 24Ville KumpuD
  • 17Stanislav BaranovM
  • 33Yacouba SackoM
  • 11Hamidou CoulibalyF
  • 45Elias TamminenF
Coach: Camilo Speranza
VPS 3-4-2-1
  • 41Mamadou JallohG
  • 23Miika NiemiD
  • 2Lassana ManéD
  • 19Martti HaukiojaD
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiD
  • 34Antti-Ville RäisänenM
  • 8Paulo LimaM
  • 7Jayden TurfkruierM
  • 24Yassin DaoussiM
  • 27Kevin Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 14Simon LindholmM
Substitutes
  • 12Lucas VäyrynenG
  • 3Razak SimpsonD
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
  • 17Dren TerrnavaM
  • 25Henri SalomaaM
  • 30Joonas VahteraM
  • 9Casper HolmelundF
  • 20Xavier OdhiamboF
  • 29Wilson SamakéF
Coach: Jussi Nuorela

Form going into Ilves vs VPS

Ilves

  • L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026

VPS

  • L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Ilves2274113437-325
6VPS229672922+733

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ilves vs VPS

  • 24 April 2026VPS 3–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • 7 February 2026VPS 1–2 IlvesLeague Cup
  • 14 July 2025Ilves 3–2 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • 2 May 2025VPS 1–0 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • 15 February 2025Ilves 1–0 VPSLeague Cup
  • 4 October 2024VPS 0–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: Ilves and VPS

Ilves

  • T. Hytönen6 goals
  • J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
  • M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists

VPS

  • L. Smyth5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.