22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Hull City vs Manchester United Premier League prediction & result

MKM Stadium, Hull
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Hull City 2-0 Manchester United.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Hull City, 22% draw, 54% Manchester United — fair odds of 4.17, 4.55 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Manchester United at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hull City99%Draw1%Manchester United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Ajayi
17'
34'
P. Dorgu
⚽N. Mendyassist: R. Slater
38'
M. Crooks
42'
46'
🔁P. Dorguout: M. Rashford
🔁N. Mendyout: L. Herrington
64'
🔁S. Ajayiout: P. McNair
64'
67'
🔁Andrey Santosout: B. Sesko
67'
🔁Y. Tielemansout: K. Mainoo
🔁L. Coyleout: C. Drameh
70'
🔁E. Stroudout: L. Millar
71'
80'
🔁N. Mazraouiout: D. Dalot
80'
🔁M. Cunhaout: S. Lacey
🔁R. Gilesout: M. Targett
85'
L. Millar
90+6'

Match stats — Hull City vs Manchester United

28%Possession72%
8Shots21
4On target5
1Corners6
1.26xG1.81

Goals against chances

Hull City2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth
Manchester United0 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hull City 5-4-1
  • 19Konstantinos TzolakisG
  • 2Lewie CoyleD
  • 6Semi AjayiD
  • 15John EganD
  • 32Nobel MendyD
  • 3Ryan GilesD
  • 10Mohamed BelloumiM
  • 25Matt CrooksM
  • 27Regan SlaterM
  • 21Elliot StroudM
  • 9Oli McBurnieF
Substitutes
  • 22Lucas HerringtonD
  • 17Paddy McNairD
  • 18Cody DramehD
  • 7Liam MillarF
  • 23Matt TargettD
  • 12Dillon PhillipsG
  • 14Jens Hjertø-DahlM
  • 29Lucas Gourna-DouathM
  • 26Kieran DowellM
Coach: Sergej Jakirovic
Manchester United 4-2-3-1
  • 1Senne LammensG
  • 3Noussair MazraouiD
  • 5Harry MaguireD
  • 26Ayden HeavenD
  • 23Luke ShawD
  • 18Youri TielemansM
  • 17Andrey SantosM
  • 19Bryan MbeumoM
  • 8Bruno FernandesM
  • 13Patrick DorguM
  • 10Matheus CunhaF
Substitutes
  • 9Marcus RashfordF
  • 37Kobbie MainooM
  • 30Benjamin ŠeškoF
  • 2Diogo DalotD
  • 31Shea LaceyF
  • 12Karl DarlowG
  • 15Leny YoroD
  • 6Lisandro MartínezD
  • 11Joshua ZirkzeeF
Coach: Michael Carrick

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Hull City422052+38
13Manchester United41127704

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hull City vs Manchester United

  • 22 August 2026Hull City 2–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
  • 1 February 2017Manchester United 0–0 Hull CityPremier League
  • 26 January 2017Hull City 2–1 Manchester UnitedLeague Cup
  • 10 January 2017Manchester United 2–0 Hull CityLeague Cup
  • 27 August 2016Hull City 0–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
  • 24 May 2015Hull City 0–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League

Leading scorers: Hull City and Manchester United

Hull City

  • M. Belloumi2 goals1 assists

Manchester United

  • Bruno Fernandes3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.