Gnistan vs Ilves Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Gnistan 3-2 Ilves.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gnistan, 19% draw, 49% Ilves — fair odds of 3.13, 5.26 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 95Matej JurickaG
- 24Rachide GnanouD
- 67Ayo ObileyeD
- 3RuxiD
- 19Bogdan MilovanovD
- 31Adam JouhiM
- 15Gabriel EuropaeusM
- 12Edmund Arko-MensahD
- 23Saku YlätupaM
- 17Adeleke AkinyemiF
- 26Roman EremenkoF
- 7Artur AtarahF
- 11Danny PérezF
- 14Sergei EremenkoM
- 10Joakim LatonenF
- 40Juhani OjalaD
- 13Oskar LyberopoulosG
- 33Samuel HeikariD
- 27Otto HannulaM
- 12Faris KrkalićG
- 16Tatu MiettunenD
- 5Sauli VäisänenD
- 3Matias RaleD
- 4Oliver PetterssonD
- 33Yacouba SackoM
- 14Anton PopovitchM
- 13Kalle WalliusM
- 30Jardell KangaM
- 9Teemu HytönenF
- 28Jesse KiloM
- 6Yiandro RaapD
- 17Stanislav BaranovM
- 19Abdoul Goudouss BambaD
- 10Roope RiskiF
- 8Maksim StjopinM
- 1Otso VirtanenG
- 24Ville KumpuD
- 15Lauri Ala-MyllymäkiM
- 45Elias TamminenF
Form going into Gnistan vs Ilves
Gnistan
- D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026
Ilves
- D1-1HNK Rijeka13 August 2026
- W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026
- W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs Ilves
- 17 August 2026Gnistan 3–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 23 May 2026Ilves 2–0 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 24 January 2026Ilves 1–0 GnistanFriendlies Clubs
- 25 October 2025Gnistan 1–3 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 23 September 2025Ilves 3–2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 4 August 2025Ilves 2–2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Gnistan and Ilves
Gnistan
- A. Akinyemi3 goals
Ilves
- T. Hytönen6 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.