22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Birmingham vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result

Birmingham
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Birmingham 2-2 Bristol City.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Birmingham, 22% draw, 18% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Birmingham at 60% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

B. Osayi-Samuel
32'
33'
⚽S. Twine
⚽S. Tickle (OG)
42'
🔁B. Osayi-Samuelout: E. Laird
46'
🔁Paik Seung-Hoout: P. Roberts
62'
🔁C. Vicenteout: D. Gray
63'
65'
🔁L. Tolajout: D. Ballard
65'
🔁J. Wallaceout: T. Horvat
71'
🔁J. Williamsout: G. Yah
71'
🔁S. Twineout: S. Greenwood
P. Roberts
78'
🔁A. Priskeout: L. Vazquez
79'
🔁J. Stansfieldout: M. Ducksch
84'
85'
⚽D. Ballardassist: R. Cardines
90+1'
🔁Y. Hirakawaout: R. Atkinson
⚽D. Gray (pen)
90+5'
90+7'
J. Knight

Match stats — Birmingham vs Bristol City

65%Possession35%
8Shots14
2On target6
7Corners3
1.98xG1.43

Goals against chances

Birmingham2 from 1.98 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bristol City2 from 1.43 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 1James BeadleG
  • 26Bright Osayi-SamuelD
  • 5Phil NeumannD
  • 4Christoph KlarerD
  • 20Alex CochraneD
  • 24Tomoki IwataM
  • 14Jhon SolísM
  • 7Carlos VicenteM
  • 8Seung Ho PaikM
  • 28Jay StansfieldM
  • 9August PriskeF
Substitutes
  • 2Ethan LairdD
  • 16Patrick RobertsM
  • 10Demarai GrayF
  • 32Luis VázquezF
  • 33Marvin DuckschF
  • 21Ryan AllsopG
  • 25Kristoffer LundD
  • 23Dael FryD
  • 27Kanya FujimotoM
Coach: Chris Davies
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sam TickleG
  • 19George TannerD
  • 16Rob DickieD
  • 2Lisav Naif EissatD
  • 21Rio CardinesD
  • 12Jason KnightM
  • 8Joe WilliamsM
  • 17Jed WallaceM
  • 10Scott TwineM
  • 7Yu HirakawaM
  • 9Lorent TolajF
Substitutes
  • 14Tomi HorvatM
  • 23Dominic BallardF
  • 27Gibson YahM
  • 20Sam GreenwoodM
  • 5Robert AtkinsonD
  • 40Brad CollinsG
  • 38Noah EileD
  • 11Sam BellF
  • 18Emil Riis JacobsenF
Coach: Roy Hodgson

Form going into Birmingham vs Bristol City

Birmingham

  • D0-0away to Sheffield Utd15 August 2026

Bristol City

  • L0-2Millwall15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Birmingham7241109+110
13Bristol City73131012-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Bristol City

  • 22 August 2026Birmingham 2–2 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 25 April 2026Birmingham 2–1 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Bristol City 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
  • 29 December 2023Birmingham 0–0 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 19 August 2023Bristol City 0–2 BirminghamChampionship
  • 14 January 2023Bristol City 4–2 BirminghamChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.