Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-0 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Independiente, 20% draw, 49% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 3.23, 5.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Newell's Old Boys at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 29Leonardo GodoyD
- 13Juan FedorcoD
- 36Sebastián ValdezD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 19Matías AbaldoM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 32David MartínezM
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 10Luciano CabralM
- 1Joaquín BlázquezG
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 30Josué ReinattiG
- 24Franco EscobarD
- 25Bruno CabreraD
- 17Lautaro GiannettiD
- 3Martín LucianoD
- 8David SoteloM
- 5Luca RegiardoM
- 7Walter MazzanttiM
- 20Facundo GuchM
- 33Walter NuñezM
- 99Juan Ignacio RamírezF
- 39Lautaro RiosM
- 15Alan SoñoraM
- 28Jeronimo RussoF
- 9Matías CóccaroF
- 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
- 21Gabriel AriasG
- 23Nicolás GoiteaD
- 22Óscar SalomónD
- 2Ian GlavinovichD
Form going into Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Newell's Old Boys
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
- 28 January 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 November 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 July 2023Independiente 0–2 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 September 2022Independiente 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 October 2021Newell's Old Boys 1–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and Newell's Old Boys
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente beat Newell's Old Boys 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Newell's Old Boys at 49% and given a win for Independiente 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: S. Montiel 41' for Independiente. On expected goals it finished 0.59–0.11.