Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Valerenga, 18% draw, 21% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 1.64, 5.56 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Valerenga at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Oscar HedvallG
- 55Sebastian JarlD
- 4Aaron Kiil OlsenD
- 5Kevin TshiembeD
- 24Petter StrandD
- 8Henrik BjørdalM
- 29Ambina Fidèle BriceM
- 10Carl LangeM
- 77Lucas HarenM
- 26Filip ThorvaldsenF
- 17Mathias GrundetjernF
- 7Mohamed OfkirM
- 28Magnus WestergaardM
- 9Gabriel RajkovicF
- 3Hakon SjatilD
- 15Odin Thiago HolmM
- 30Alexander Svensen OrdalG
- 6Vegar Eggen HedenstadD
- 19Promise MeligaF
- 90Ole Christian SaeterF
- 12Marcus SandbergG
- 26Patrick MetcalfeD
- 2Martin GjoneD
- 4Halvor Rodolen OpsahlD
- 3Ethan Amundsen-DayD
- 5Anton EkerothD
- 17Aksel Baran PoturM
- 14Luc MaresM
- 8Markus JohnsgardM
- 28David BenjaminF
- 29Blerton IsufiF
- 23Fredrik SjolstadD
- 19Henrik UdahlF
- 16Anders TrondsenM
- 22Snorre Strand NilsenD
- 6William Osnes-RingenM
- 13Sander ØstraatG
- 7Viðar Ari JónssonM
- 24Danilo Al-SaedF
- 20Julian Bakkeli GonstadF
Form going into Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
Valerenga
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
Ham-Kam
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
- L1-4Tromso18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
- 8 May 2026Ham-Kam 1–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 19 October 2025Ham-Kam 2–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 16 May 2025Valerenga 1–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 8 May 2024Valerenga 2–2 Ham-KamNM Cupen
- 26 November 2023Ham-Kam 0–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 16 May 2023Valerenga 3–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Ham-Kam
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Ham-Kam
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ham-Kam won 3–0 at Valerenga. The model had leaned towards a win for Valerenga at 61% and given a win for Ham-Kam 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Aksel Baran Potur 45+3' for Ham-Kam, Martin Gjone 68' for Ham-Kam, Patrick Metcalfe 83' for Ham-Kam. Sent off: Henrik Bjørdal (Valerenga) 15'. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.40.