8 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Presidente Peron, Cordoba
Referee: L. Rey Hilfer
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Instituto Cordoba 2-2 Newell's Old Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Instituto Cordoba, 30% draw, 22% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Instituto Cordoba at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Instituto Cordoba0%Draw4%Newell's Old Boys96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Facundo Ezquel Suarezassist: Jhon Córdoba
7'
Matías Gallardo
45+2'
45'
🔁Lucas Nicolás Gómezout: Jerónimo Gómez Mattar
🔁Matías Gallardoout: Juan Ignacio Méndez
62'
🔁Facundo Ezquel Suarezout: Matías Tissera
62'
63'
🔁Juan Ignacio Ramírezout: Francisco Scarpeccio
63'
🔁Alan Soñoraout: Facundo Samuel Guch
66'
⚽Walter Nunezassist: Jerónimo Gómez Mattar
🔁Jonas Acevedoout: Matias Fonseca
72'
🔁Jhon Córdobaout: Nicolás Guerra
76'
78'
🔁Walter Nunezout: Walter Mazzantti
79'
⚽Walter Mazzanttiassist: Francisco Scarpeccio
88'
🔁Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyraout: Alejo Montero
⚽Matías Tisseraassist: Diego Alejandro Sosa
90+3'

Match stats — Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys

52%Possession48%
8Shots11
3On target4
1Corners3
1.48xG1.04

Goals against chances

Instituto Cordoba2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Newell's Old Boys2 from 1.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Instituto Cordoba 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. LedesmaG
  • 22A. MassaccesiD
  • 32A. BravoD
  • 3D. SosaD
  • 44G. CeratoM
  • 55G. AbregúM
  • 15M. GallardoM
  • 23J. MeliM
  • 20J. CórdobaM
  • 8J. AcevedoM
  • 9F. SuárezF
Substitutes
  • 30J. GalvánD
  • 7N. GuerraF
  • 10A. LunaM
  • 13I. MéndezM
  • 73Lucas OliveraD
  • 19L. SansevieroF
  • 35E. SittaroG
  • 17M. TisseraF
  • 14W. VieraM
Coach: Diego Flores
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ReinattiG
  • 6M. OrtegaD
  • 23N. GoiteaD
  • 22O. SalomónD
  • 28J. RussoD
  • 27L. GómezM
  • 5L. RegiardoM
  • 32S. SolariM
  • 15A. SoñoraM
  • 33W. NúñezM
  • 99I. RamírezF
Substitutes
  • 14Joaquín AmadioF
  • 21G. AriasG
  • 20Facundo GauchF
  • 19J. MattarM
  • 3M. LucianoD
  • 7W. MazzanttiF
  • 41Alan Mauricio Mereles VivasM
  • 4A. MonteroM
  • 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
Coach: F. Kudelka

Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys

Instituto Cordoba

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D3-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 November 2026
  • W1-0Deportivo Riestra27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Defensa Y Justicia16 October 2026
  • D2-2Boca Juniors9 October 2026

Newell's Old Boys

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1Union Santa Fe1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to San Lorenzo24 October 2026
  • W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Instituto Cordoba went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Instituto Cordoba scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Newell's Old Boys failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Newell's Old Boys conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Instituto Cordoba1610422615+1134
6Newell's Old Boys165831613+323

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys

  • 26 April 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 June 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 27 February 2023Instituto Cordoba 3–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina

The result against the call

Instituto Cordoba and Newell's Old Boys drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Instituto Cordoba at 48% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Facundo Ezquel Suarez 7' for Instituto Cordoba, Walter Nunez 66' for Newell's Old Boys, Walter Mazzantti 79' for Newell's Old Boys, Matías Tissera 90+3' for Instituto Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Instituto Cordoba a 89.8% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 49.9% after a defeat. The draw was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 10.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.