7 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario
Referee: H. Mastrangelo
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Rosario Central, 23% draw, 11% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rosario Central at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rosario Central99%Draw1%Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Agustín Quiroga
⚽Julian Fernandezassist: Gaston Avila
44'
55'
Ibrahim Hesar
58'
🔁juan chalaout: Bautista Pieroni
69'
🔁Ibrahim Hesarout: Joaquín Román Rivero
69'
🔁Facundo David Gallardoout: Alexis Maximiliano Devia
•Gaston Avila
71'
Gaston Avila
72'
🔁Julian Fernandezout: Sebastian Zaracho
73'
74'
Sergio Ojeda
80'
Fernando Rodríguez
85'
🔁Gonzalo Gonzálezout: Lucas Baños
85'
🔁Tomás Gonzálezout: Tomas Escobar Carranza
⚽Emanuel Coronel
86'
🔁Enzo Copettiout: Marco Ruben
90+2'
🔁Jaminton Campazout: Franco Cervi
90+2'
🔁Ignacio Ovandoout: Facundo Mallo
90+2'

Match stats — Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

63%Possession37%
15Shots1
6On target1
12Corners2
1.13xG0.09

Goals against chances

Rosario Central2 from 1.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0 from 0.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
  • 23J. LedesmaG
  • 32E. CoronelD
  • 46Ignacio OvandoD
  • 13G. ÁvilaD
  • 3A. SandezD
  • 5F. IbarraM
  • 20V. PizarroM
  • 88A. RodríguezM
  • 18J. FernándezM
  • 8J. CampazM
  • 22E. CopettiF
Substitutes
  • 7M. CabreraF
  • 16T. BadaloniF
  • 10F. CerviM
  • 24Juan Valentín GiménezD
  • 6J. KomarD
  • 15F. MalloD
  • 9M. RubenF
  • 19L. SegoviaM
  • 33A. SotoD
Coach: J. Almirón
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 4-4-1-1
  • 12Francisco Agustín GualtieriG
  • 14G. GonzalezD
  • 30S. OjedaD
  • 29A. QuirogaD
  • 23F. RodríguezD
  • 35Facundo David GallardoM
  • 15L. CepehaM
  • 5A. CabreraM
  • 99J. ChalaM
  • 10T. GonzálezM
  • 77I. HesarF
Substitutes
  • 3Lucas BañosD
  • 34Alexis Maximiliano DeviaM
  • 24Tomas Escobar CarranzaM
  • 26Bautista Federighi BonettoD
  • 4V. FenoglioF
  • 38Lautaro HerreraG
  • 86M. PagliaricciD
  • 47Bautista PieroniD
  • 18J. RiveroF
Coach: R. Forestello

Form going into Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Rosario Central

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-1away to Sarmiento Junin31 October 2026
  • W2-0Huracan25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Atletico Tucuman17 October 2026
  • W5-0Independiente Rivadavia11 October 2026

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L1-2Gimnasia La Plata30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Barracas Central26 October 2026
  • W2-1Aldosivi18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to River Plate11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rosario Central won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rosario Central scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Rosario Central had three goals or more.
  • Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Rosario Central1610422612+1434
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1623111023-139

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

  • 24 April 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Rosario Central

GoalsAssists

  • Á. Di María115
  • G. Ávila73

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rosario Central beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–0. The model had made a win for Rosario Central its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Julian Fernandez 44' for Rosario Central, Emanuel Coronel 86' for Rosario Central. Sent off: Gaston Avila (Rosario Central) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rosario Central a 83.0% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 99.6% after a win, 42.9% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.6%, 16.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.