7 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Referee: G. Pereira
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junin.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tigre, 30% draw, 27% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tigre at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tigre99%Draw1%Sarmiento Junin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
•Julian Mavilla
35'
⚽Junior Marabel (pen)
45'
Thiago Santamaría
50'
Gaston Gonzalez
55'
•Lucas·Suarez
55'
Lucas·Suarez
57'
🔁Elián Giménezout: Ulises Adrian Gimenez
🔁Tiago Serragoout: Mauro Méndez
64'
Alan Barrionuevo
67'
⚽Santiago Lopez Grobinassist: Jabes Saralegui
70'
🔁Gonzalo Martínezout: Ignacio Russo
76'
76'
🔁Julian Mavillaout: Jonathan Herrera
76'
🔁Junior Marabelout: Julián Contrera
Mauro Méndez
80'
•Mauro Méndez
83'
89'
🔁Gabriel Díazout: Nicolas Pasquini
🔁Jabes Saraleguiout: Manuel Fernández
90+3'
🔁Santiago Lopez Grobinout: Luciano Minniti
90+3'

Match stats — Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

61%Possession39%
13Shots10
3On target3
4Corners4
1.07xG1.02

Goals against chances

Tigre1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sarmiento Junin0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tigre 4-4-2
  • 12F. ZenobioG
  • 50I. PeluffoD
  • 23G. RequenaD
  • 20A. BarrionuevoD
  • 24F. ÁlvarezD
  • 22S. LópezM
  • 8M. GarayM
  • 10J. SaraleguiM
  • 11T. SerragoM
  • 28P. MartínezF
  • 30J. DóminaF
Substitutes
  • 36Lucian CarracedoM
  • 45Román PesolillaM
  • 40L. MinnitiD
  • 26L. MoralesG
  • 33M. MéndezF
  • 29I. RussoF
  • 17G. SotoD
  • 25Ian Martin SubiabreF
  • 32J. VillalbaD
Coach: D. Dabove
Sarmiento Junin 4-2-3-1
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 29T. SantamaríaD
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 3L. SuárezD
  • 33G. DíazD
  • 23E. GiménezM
  • 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 5M. GarcíaM
  • 11G. GonzálezM
  • 27J. MarabelF
Substitutes
  • 9D. ChurínF
  • 35F. AlaggiaM
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 26Y. ArismendiM
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 20U. GiménezD
  • 24J. HerreraF
  • 7P. MagnínF
  • 36R. MaisterraM
Coach: Facundo Sava

Form going into Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

Tigre

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0away to Huracan30 October 2026
  • L0-1Atletico Tucuman24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Independiente Rivadavia17 October 2026
  • L1-2Banfield10 October 2026

Sarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L1-2Rosario Central31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Gimnasia La Plata23 October 2026
  • D1-1Barracas Central19 October 2026
  • D1-1River Plate14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Tigre failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Tigre scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Tigre conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Tigre165471616019
9Sarmiento Junin166372324-121

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

  • 25 April 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 August 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 January 2024Tigre 0–0 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 20 August 2023Sarmiento Junin 2–0 TigreCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 14 April 2023Tigre 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 October 2022Sarmiento Junin 2–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin record →

Leading scorers: Tigre and Sarmiento Junin

Tigre

GoalsAssists

  • I. Russo83
  • M. Méndez73
  • D. Romero72

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tigre beat Sarmiento Junin 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Tigre at 43%. The goal: Santiago Lopez Grobin 70' for Tigre. Sent off: Gaston Gonzalez (Sarmiento Junin) 50', Lucas·Suarez (Sarmiento Junin) 55'. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.02.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarmiento Junin a 91.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 82.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.2%, 9.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tigre v Sarmiento Junin has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Tigre's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Tigre win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Sarmiento Junin win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.