8 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result

Rize
Referee: D. Tonusluoglu
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Rizespor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Rizespor, 28% draw, 27% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rizespor at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rizespor97%Draw3%Erzurumspor FK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Soweassist: I. Olawoyin
31'
37'
⚽I. Diabateassist: G. Kerk
45'
G. Kerk
45+1'
M. Cardoso
🔁A. Kutucuout: E. Bulut
63'
🔁M. Diakiteout: T. Antalyali
63'
⚽A. Soweassist: A. Mebude
66'
76'
🔁G. Kerkout: E. Tozlu
76'
🔁M. Cardosoout: M. Rodriguez
77'
🔁F. Eboseleout: M. Fettahoglu
🔁Q. Laciout: D. Varesanovic
87'
🔁A. Mebudeout: T. T. Sanuc
87'
90+1'
🔁E. Owusuout: S. Akgun
90+1'
🔁G. Giorbelidzeout: M. Yumlu
🔁A. Soweout: M. C. Tosun
90+1'
90+2'
M. Yumlu

Match stats — Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK

62%Possession38%
24Shots9
6On target4
8Corners2
3.3xG0.88

Goals against chances

Rizespor2 from 3.30 xGless than the chances were worth
Erzurumspor FK1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rizespor 4-1-4-1
  • 30Zafer GörgenG
  • 54Mithat PalaD
  • 4Attila MocsiD
  • 21Siaka BakayokoD
  • 17Zakaria ArissD
  • 6Moussa DiakitéM
  • 11Adedire MebudeM
  • 10Ibrahim OlawoyinM
  • 20Qazim LaciM
  • 23Ahmed KutucuM
  • 9Ali SoweF
Substitutes
  • 14Taylan AntalyalıM
  • 99Emrecan BulutF
  • 5Tayyip Talha SanuçD
  • 8Dal VarešanovićM
  • 80Mustafa Coşkun TosunF
  • 75Yahia FofanaG
  • 19Umut ErdemD
  • 37Taha ŞahinD
  • 47Emirhan YilmazF
Erzurumspor FK 5-4-1
  • 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
  • 2Festy EboseleD
  • 53Orhan OvacıklıD
  • 4Amar GerxhaliuD
  • 18Nihad MujakićD
  • 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
  • 9Gyrano KerkM
  • 6Brandon BaiyeM
  • 42Elisha OwusuM
  • 20Miguel CardosoM
  • 19Ibrahim DiabatéF
Substitutes
  • 65Martín RodríguezM
  • 10Eren TozluF
  • 99Mustafa FettahogluF
  • 22Mustafa YumluD
  • 8Sefa AkgünM
  • 31Matija OrbanićG
  • 23Cengizhan BayrakD
  • 3Yakup KırtayD
  • 77Lawrence AgyekumM

Form going into Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK

Rizespor

Süper Lig

  • D0-0away to Kocaelispor31 October 2026
  • L3-4Trabzonspor26 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
  • L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026

Erzurumspor FK

Süper Lig

  • L1-3Çorum FK31 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Gaziantep FK24 October 2026
  • W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rizespor did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Rizespor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Rizespor had three goals or more.
  • Erzurumspor FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Rizespor114251316-314
12Erzurumspor FK114251017-714

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK

  • 17 July 2026Erzurumspor FK 0–0 RizesporFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 January 2026Erzurumspor FK 2–0 RizesporTürkiye Kupası
  • 9 April 2023Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Rizespor1. Lig
  • 4 November 2022Rizespor 3–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
  • 22 July 2022Erzurumspor FK 2–3 RizesporFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 November 2021Rizespor 1–4 Erzurumspor FKFriendlies Clubs

The full Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK record →

Leading scorers: Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK

Rizespor

GoalsAssists

  • A. Sowe40

Erzurumspor FK

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rizespor beat Erzurumspor FK 2–1. The model had made a win for Rizespor its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Sowe 31' for Rizespor, I. Diabate 37' for Erzurumspor FK, A. Sowe 66' for Rizespor. On expected goals it finished 3.30–0.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rizespor a 15.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.6% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 21.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 4 points lower than before the match.

For Erzurumspor FK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.0% going in: 7.6% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.6%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rizespor v Erzurumspor FK has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Rizespor's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Rizespor win45%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Erzurumspor FK win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.