29 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Veritas Stadion, Turku
Referee: Mohammad Al-Emara
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Inter Turku 2-4 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Inter Turku, 26% draw, 28% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Turku at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Turku0%Draw1%HJK Helsinki99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Leonel Montanoassist: Alfie Cicale
29'
Mihailo Bogicevic
⚽Alie Contehassist: Eeli Kiiskilä
32'
Clinton Degol Jephta
34'
36'
⚽Mads Borchersassist: Santeri Haarala
⚽Jasse Tuominen (pen)
52'
58'
Pyry Mentu
61'
Ville Tikkanen
🔁Clinton Degol Jephtaout: Herman Sjögrell
61'
🔁Johannes Yli-Kokkoout: Iiro Järvinen
62'
Juuso Hämäläinen
62'
67'
🔁Liam Möllerout: Lassi Lappalainen
67'
🔁Pyry Mentuout: Lucas Lingman
67'
🔁Alexander Ringout: Joona Veteli
70'
⚽Lassi Lappalainenassist: Mads Borchers
🔁Lauri Laineout: Muhammed Suso
70'
74'
🔁Nikolai Alhoout: Kaius Simojoki
75'
⚽Alfie Cicaleassist: Mads Borchers
🔁Jasse Tuominenout: Jean Botué
77'
🔁Seth Saarinenout: Yeboah Amankwah
77'
89'
🔁Mads Borchersout: Till Cissokho

Match stats — Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki

52%Possession48%
7Shots14
2On target7
1Corners4
1.06xG2.74

Goals against chances

Inter Turku2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
HJK Helsinki4 from 2.74 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Turku 4-3-3
  • 1E. HuuhtanenG
  • 18S. SaarinenD
  • 3J. HämäläinenD
  • 6R. IvanovD
  • 2J. NiskaD
  • 9J. TuominenM
  • 8J. Yli-KokkoM
  • 35Eeli KiiskiläM
  • 16C. JephtaF
  • 10Alie ContehF
  • 28L. LaineF
Substitutes
  • 19I. JärvinenM
  • 30Y. AmankwahD
  • 22L. KuittinenD
  • 11J. BotuéF
  • 34L. ProkopF
  • 7H. SjögrellM
  • 33Muhammed SusoF
  • 24J. TauriainenD
  • 12E. VuorjokiG
Coach: V. Vasara
HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogićevićD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 22L. MöllerM
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 7Alfie CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 29S. HaaralaF
Substitutes
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 26L. LappalainenF
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 33O. MaukonenG
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 77J. VeteliM
  • 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
  • 11M. KirilovM
Coach: J. Rantanen

Form going into Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki

Inter Turku

Finnish Premier League

  • W1-0away to VPS24 October 2026
  • L1-2AC Oulu17 October 2026

HJK Helsinki

Finnish Premier League

  • D2-2KuPS25 October 2026
  • W4-0Gnistan17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Inter Turku32171054327+1661
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki

  • 9 September 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 5 September 2026Inter Turku 1–0 HJK HelsinkiSuomen Cup
  • 17 June 2026HJK Helsinki 3–3 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 29 April 2026Inter Turku 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 30 January 2026Inter Turku 1–3 HJK HelsinkiLeague Cup
  • 26 October 2025HJK Helsinki 1–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Inter Turku and HJK Helsinki

Inter Turku

GoalsAssists

  • H. Sjögrell82
  • Alie Conteh40

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki won 4–2 at Inter Turku. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Turku at 46% and given a win for HJK Helsinki 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leonel Montano 19' for HJK Helsinki, Alie Conteh 32' for Inter Turku, Mads Borchers 36' for HJK Helsinki, Jasse Tuominen (penalty) 52' for Inter Turku, Lassi Lappalainen 70' for HJK Helsinki, Alfie Cicale 75' for HJK Helsinki. On expected goals it finished 1.06–2.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Turku a 61.4% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 81.1% after a win, 60.3% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.9%, 38.5 points lower than before the match.

For HJK Helsinki the question was the chance to finish top of the Championship Group, 19.2% going in: 58.4% after a win, 14.7% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.4%, 39.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Inter Turku v HJK Helsinki has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 49% / 25% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Inter Turku's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Inter Turku win46%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. HJK Helsinki win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.