AC Oulu vs VPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: AC Oulu 0-0 VPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% AC Oulu, 27% draw, 29% VPS — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AC Oulu at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AC Oulu vs VPS
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 62Tobias BackmanG
- 16O. KemppainenD
- 3J. LietsaD
- 66J. PirinenD
- 22T. KaukuaD
- 36J. LotvonenM
- 21I. MendolinM
- 25M. ArsaloM
- 27E. KallioM
- 10C. TrianaF
- 7R. KarjalainenF
- 18Adramane CassamáD
- 14N. JokelainenM
- 40J. KorhonenM
- 30J. MakelainenM
- 8M. OjalaM
- 12J. PenttiG
- 9R. RiskiF
- 29S. SilanderD
- 2S. SipolaD
- 41M. JallohG
- 23M. NiemiD
- 6E. OkerekeD
- 2L. ManeD
- 30J. VahteraM
- 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiM
- 14S. LindholmM
- 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
- 7J. TurfkruierM
- 20X. OdhiamboF
- 9C. HolmelundF
- 3Razak SimpsonM
- 17Dren TërrnavaM
- 12L. VäyrynenG
- 25Henri SalomaaF
- 1A. PiispaG
- 29W. SamakéF
- 11J. MuzingaF
- 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanD
- 18A. ArrakoskiD
Form going into AC Oulu vs VPS
AC Oulu
Finnish Premier League
- W4-3away to Gnistan24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Turku17 October 2026
VPS
Finnish Premier League
- L0-1Inter Turku24 October 2026
- L0-2away to KuPS18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Oulu | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 48 |
| 6 | VPS | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs VPS
- 8 September 2026VPS 1–0 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
- 23 June 2026VPS 5–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
- 18 April 2026AC Oulu 1–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 24 January 2026VPS 1–4 AC OuluLeague Cup
- 4 October 2025AC Oulu 2–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 28 June 2025AC Oulu 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: AC Oulu and VPS
AC Oulu
GoalsAssists
- R. Karjalainen56
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AC Oulu and VPS drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Oulu at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.51.
How the call on AC Oulu v VPS has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is AC Oulu's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- AC Oulu win44%▲ +6
- Draw27%▼ −1
- VPS win29%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.