29 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

KuPS vs Gnistan Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Referee: Oliver Reitala
Full time1 – 1

Final score: KuPS 1-1 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% KuPS, 22% draw, 21% Gnistan — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KuPS at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Saku Savolainenassist: Valentin Gasc
15'
27'
Danny Pérez
Valentin Gasc
31'
🔁Jaime Morenoout: Piotr Parzyszek
43'
🔁Gustav Engvallout: Tommi Jyry
68'
🔁Samuel Pasanenout: Julius Eskesen
68'
76'
🔁Artur Atarahout: Kosmo Launiala
84'
⚽Brahima Magassa (OG)
🔁Clinton Antwiout: Saku Heiskanen
85'
86'
🔁Roman Eremenkoout: Otto Hannula
87'
Kosmo Launiala
Julius Eskesen
89'
90+2'
🔁Joakim Latonenout: Juhani Ojala

Match stats — KuPS vs Gnistan

67%Possession33%
17Shots9
8On target1
12Corners5
1.37xG1.07

Goals against chances

KuPS1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gnistan1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 9G. EngvallM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 11J. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 17A. HeinonenM
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
Coach: M. Nuutinen
Gnistan 5-4-1
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 14S. EremenkoD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 3RuxiD
  • 11D. PérezD
  • 26R. EremenkoM
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 10J. LatonenM
  • 7A. AtarahF
Substitutes
  • 50J SelengeF
  • 25Noah RossiD
  • 40J. OjalaD
  • 45Kosmo LaunialaF
  • 95M. JuričkaG
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 2B. DahlströmD
Coach: Jussi Leppälahti

Form going into KuPS vs Gnistan

KuPS

Finnish Premier League

  • D2-2away to HJK Helsinki25 October 2026
  • W2-0VPS18 October 2026

Gnistan

Finnish Premier League

  • L3-4AC Oulu24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to HJK Helsinki17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3KuPS32141174633+1353
5Gnistan321210105247+546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KuPS vs Gnistan

  • 8 September 2026Gnistan 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 1 August 2026Gnistan 0–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 11 April 2026KuPS 1–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 30 October 2025KuPS 1–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 27 September 2025Gnistan 0–4 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 1 July 2025KuPS 6–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: KuPS and Gnistan

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50
  • A. Jouhi31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KuPS and Gnistan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for KuPS at 57% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Saku Savolainen 15' for KuPS, Brahima Magassa (own goal) 84' for Gnistan. On expected goals it finished 1.37–1.07.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KuPS a 19.4% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 27.2% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 2.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.8%, 9.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on KuPS v Gnistan has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 57% / 22% / 21%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. KuPS win57%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Gnistan win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.