25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Referee: Dennis Antamo
Full time2 – 2

Final score: HJK Helsinki 2-2 KuPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% HJK Helsinki, 25% draw, 32% KuPS — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HJK Helsinki at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HJK Helsinki5%Draw91%KuPS4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Liam Möller
43'
Alexander Ring
44'
⚽Liam Möller
53'
55'
⚽Petteri Pennanen
56'
⚽Jaime Moreno
🔁Alfie Cicaleout: Lassi Lappalainen
66'
66'
🔁Joslyn Lutumba Luyeyeout: Tommi Jyry
66'
🔁Samuel Pasanenout: Julius Eskesen
🔁Alexander Ringout: Joona Veteli
72'
🔁Liam Möllerout: Teemu Pukki
72'
⚽Nikolai Alhoassist: Teemu Pukki
74'
75'
Julius Eskesen
Nikolai Alho
76'
77'
Petteri Pennanen
78'
🔁Bob Nii Armahout: Gustav Engvall
83'
Arttu Lötjönen
87'
🔁Jaime Morenoout: Piotr Parzyszek

Match stats — HJK Helsinki vs KuPS

52%Possession48%
10Shots22
5On target8
2Corners8
1.32xG2.09

Goals against chances

HJK Helsinki2 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
KuPS2 from 2.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogićevićD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 22L. MöllerM
  • 29S. HaaralaM
  • 7Alfie CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
Substitutes
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 12M. HaapanenG
  • 26L. LappalainenF
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 77J. VeteliM
  • 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
  • 11M. KirilovM
Coach: J. Rantanen
KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 23A. LötjönenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 11J. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 9G. EngvallF
  • 15A. AikiF
  • 4K. AdamsD
Coach: M. Nuutinen

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs KuPS

HJK Helsinki

Finnish Premier League

  • W4-0Gnistan17 October 2026

KuPS

Finnish Premier League

  • W2-0VPS18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759
3KuPS32141174633+1353

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs KuPS

  • 13 September 2026KuPS 0–0 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 27 June 2026HJK Helsinki 0–4 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 26 April 2026KuPS 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 9 November 2025HJK Helsinki 0–2 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 19 October 2025KuPS 3–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 20 September 2025HJK Helsinki 1–0 KuPSSuomen Cup

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and KuPS

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki and KuPS drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for HJK Helsinki at 43% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Liam Möller 53' for HJK Helsinki, Petteri Pennanen 55' for KuPS, Jaime Moreno 56' for KuPS, Nikolai Alho 74' for HJK Helsinki. On expected goals it finished 1.32–2.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HJK Helsinki a 26.5% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 39.1% after a win, 23.6% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.6%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For KuPS the question was the chance to finish top of the Championship Group, 17.9% going in: 39.0% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 3.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.1%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.