Wisla Krakow
vs
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wisla Krakow 2–1 Motor Lublin
The model makes it 50% Wisla Krakow, 25% draw, 25% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wisla Krakow 1.97, Motor Lublin 1.26.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Wisla Krakow's rating is built from 14 Ekstraklasa matches and Motor Lublin's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Wisla Krakow are 5th on 24 points from 14 games; Motor Lublin are 10th on 19 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wisla Krakow have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cracovia Krakow.
- Motor Lublin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Wisla Plock.
- Last 3 meetings: Motor Lublin 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 April 2024, ended Wisla Krakow 1–3 Motor Lublin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin
Has the model earned this number?
Wisla Krakow at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow6 November 2026
- L1-3away to Lech Poznan31 October 2026
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa
- W3-2Wisla Plock6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Cracovia Krakow30 October 2026
- D2-2Zaglebie Lubin23 October 2026
- W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
What these results say
- Wisla Krakow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wisla Krakow
Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today
Motor Lublin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin
- 7 April 2024Wisla Krakow 1–3 Motor LublinI Liga
- 23 September 2023Motor Lublin 1–4 Wisla KrakowI Liga
- 9 November 2022Motor Lublin 1–0 Wisla KrakowCup
Leading scorers: Wisla Krakow and Motor Lublin
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak70
- M. Ndiaye43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wisla Krakow a 0.6% chance of the title and Motor Lublin 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Krakow the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Wisla Krakow against 1.26 for Motor Lublin. Wisla Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.44 for Motor Lublin.
How the model reaches 50% for Wisla Krakow to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Wisla Krakow to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Wisla Krakow's ratings add 2 points and Motor Lublin's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Wisla Krakow's ratings47%+2
- Motor Lublin's ratings50%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wisla Krakow at home · Motor Lublin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Wisla KrakowMotor Lublin
Wisla Krakow are 5th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Motor Lublin are 10th after 14 (between 6th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wisla Krakow 14, Motor Lublin 14.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Motor Lublin have let in 1 there.
Motor Lublin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Wisla Krakow have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wisla Krakow
- at Zaglebie Lubin4 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at GKS Katowice12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Piast Gliwice30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- at Wisla Plock6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 39%
Motor Lublin
- vs Lech Poznan5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Widzew Łódź12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- at Jagiellonia30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Pogon Szczecin6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.