Widzew Łódź
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Widzew Łódź 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin
The model makes it 41% Widzew Łódź, 31% draw, 28% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.26, Zaglebie Lubin 0.95.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Widzew Łódź's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Zaglebie Lubin's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Widzew Łódź are 13th on 14 points from 14 games; Zaglebie Lubin are 6th on 23 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Widzew Łódź have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Pogon Szczecin.
- Zaglebie Lubin are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Lech Poznan.
- Last 6 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 January 2026, ended Widzew Łódź 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin
Has the model earned this number?
Widzew Łódź at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa
- W3-0Pogon Szczecin7 November 2026
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice31 October 2026
- D1-1Gornik Zabrze23 October 2026
- D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2away to Lech Poznan8 November 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Motor Lublin23 October 2026
- W1-0Jagiellonia18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026
What these results say
- Widzew Łódź failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Widzew Łódź
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 22 January 2026Widzew Łódź 1–1 Zaglebie LubinFriendlies Clubs
- 6 December 2025Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 29 October 2025Widzew Łódź 1–0 Zaglebie LubinCup
- 19 July 2025Widzew Łódź 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2025Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 17 January 2025Widzew Łódź 4–7 Zaglebie LubinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin
Widzew Łódź
GoalsAssists
- K. Świderski51
Zaglebie Lubin
GoalsAssists
- M. Reguła50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zaglebie Lubin (6th, with Widzew Łódź 13th), while our numbers lean to Widzew Łódź. Widzew Łódź rate 0.74 in attack and 1.10 in defence, Zaglebie Lubin 0.68 and 1.02 (lower is better in defence), so Widzew Łódź have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 9-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Widzew Łódź a 0% chance of the title and Zaglebie Lubin 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Widzew Łódź the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Widzew Łódź against 0.95 for Zaglebie Lubin. Widzew Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.02 for Zaglebie Lubin.
How the model reaches 41% for Widzew Łódź to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Widzew Łódź to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Widzew Łódź's ratings change nothing and Zaglebie Lubin's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Widzew Łódź's ratings41%±0
- Zaglebie Lubin's ratings41%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Widzew Łódź at home · Zaglebie Lubin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Widzew ŁódźZaglebie Lubin
Widzew Łódź are 13th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 7th and 14th so far); Zaglebie Lubin are 6th after 14 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Widzew Łódź 14, Zaglebie Lubin 14.
Widzew Łódź score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Zaglebie Lubin have let in 2 there.
Zaglebie Lubin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Widzew Łódź
- at Cracovia Krakow5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Motor Lublin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- vs Wisla Plock30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- vs Jagiellonia6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Zaglebie Lubin
- vs Wisla Krakow4 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Piast Gliwice12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Legia Warszawa30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- vs Raków Częstochowa6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.