Legia Warszawa
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wieczysta Kraków
The model makes it 59% Legia Warszawa, 23% draw, 18% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 2.17, Wieczysta Kraków 0.96.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Legia Warszawa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Legia Warszawa's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Wieczysta Kraków's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 24 points from 14 games; Wieczysta Kraków are bottom on 8 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Legia Warszawa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Raków Częstochowa.
- Wieczysta Kraków have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Gornik Zabrze.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa
- L2-4Raków Częstochowa8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Gornik Zabrze30 October 2026
- L1-2Lech Poznan25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cracovia Krakow17 October 2026
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze7 November 2026
- L1-3Jagiellonia31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slask Wroclaw25 October 2026
- L1-2Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
- L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Legia Warszawa a 1.7% chance of the title and Wieczysta Kraków 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Legia Warszawa against 0.96 for Wieczysta Kraków. Legia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.53 for Wieczysta Kraków.
How the model reaches 59% for Legia Warszawa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Legia Warszawa to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Legia Warszawa's ratings add 7 points and Wieczysta Kraków's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Legia Warszawa's ratings51%+7
- Wieczysta Kraków's ratings59%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Legia Warszawa at home · Wieczysta Kraków away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Legia WarszawaWieczysta Kraków
Legia Warszawa are 3rd after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Wieczysta Kraków are 18th after 14 (between 12th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Legia Warszawa 14, Wieczysta Kraków 14.
Legia Warszawa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 1 there.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Legia Warszawa have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Legia Warszawa
- at GKS Katowice5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- vs Pogon Szczecin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 48%
- at Zaglebie Lubin30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- vs Korona Kielce6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 55%
Wieczysta Kraków
- vs Korona Kielce4 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- vs Radomiak Radom12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- at Lech Poznan30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 10%
- vs GKS Katowice6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.