Lech Poznan
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 2–1 Pogon Szczecin
The model makes it 62% Lech Poznan, 21% draw, 17% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.40, Pogon Szczecin 1.02.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Lech Poznan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lech Poznan's rating is built from 47 Ekstraklasa matches and Pogon Szczecin's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Lech Poznan are top on 32 points from 13 games; Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 24 points from 13 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Lech Poznan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Widzew Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: Lech Poznan 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Lech Poznan.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2Zaglebie Lubin8 November 2026
- W3-1Wisla Krakow31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Legia Warszawa25 October 2026
- W6-1Korona Kielce18 October 2026
- W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa
- L0-3away to Widzew Łódź7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Raków Częstochowa2 November 2026
- W4-3Radomiak Radom24 October 2026
- W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 32 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
- 18 April 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2025Lech Poznan 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 1 March 2025Pogon Szczecin 0–3 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 25 August 2024Lech Poznan 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 7 April 2024Lech Poznan 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 27 February 2024Lech Poznan 0–1 Pogon SzczecinCup
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- P. Wålemark73
- Pablo Rodríguez67
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lech Poznan a 77.9% chance of the title and Pogon Szczecin 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.02 for Pogon Szczecin. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.26/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.14 for Pogon Szczecin.
How the model reaches 62% for Lech Poznan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lech Poznan to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Lech Poznan's ratings add 10 points and Pogon Szczecin's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Lech Poznan's ratings54%+10
- Pogon Szczecin's ratings62%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lech Poznan at home · Pogon Szczecin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Lech PoznanPogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan are 1st after 13 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Pogon Szczecin are 4th after 13 (between 2nd and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Lech Poznan 13, Pogon Szczecin 13.
Pogon Szczecin score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lech Poznan
- at Motor Lublin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 53%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 54%
- at Cracovia Krakow12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 55%
Pogon Szczecin
- vs Gornik Zabrze6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Legia Warszawa12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- at Jagiellonia16 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Cracovia Krakow30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.