KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: KFUM Oslo 2-1 Valerenga.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% KFUM Oslo, 25% draw, 32% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
KFUM Oslo at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. ØdegaardG
- 24H. RøstenD
- 5F. BerglieD
- 2D. SchneiderD
- 14H. HosethM
- 19E. SaunesM
- 9M. VinjorM
- 16J. HjorthM
- 11O. VistedF
- 22B. KristensenF
- 10B. NjieF
- 23M. EikremM
- 28M. GrødemF
- 42D. HicksonF
- 25H. JensenG
- 33A. NouriD
- 7R. RaschM
- 13B. SkaretD
- 8B. TobiassenM
- 18R. VingeF
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjåtilD
- 4A. Kiil OlsenD
- 55S. JarlD
- 26D. GjengaarD
- 24P. StrandM
- 11G. ZahidM
- 10C. LangeM
- 77L. HarenM
- 90O. SaeterF
- 28M. WestergaardF
- 7H. NielsenF
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 19E. RashaniF
- 37I. NäsbergD
- 13S. LønningG
- 15O. HolmM
- 17M. GrundetjernM
- 2K. FinnssonD
- 29F. AmbinaM
Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 September 2026
- W2-1Aalesund13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
- L1-4away to Start30 August 2026
- D1-1Lillestrom15 August 2026
Valerenga
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
- L3-4Molde30 August 2026
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
What these results say
- KFUM Oslo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- KFUM Oslo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for KFUM Oslo.
- Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 31 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
- 3 May 2026Valerenga 2–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 21 February 2026Valerenga 1–0 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 20 September 2025Valerenga 1–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 26 May 2025KFUM Oslo 0–1 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
GoalsAssists
- B. Njie83
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
KFUM Oslo beat Valerenga 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for KFUM Oslo at 43%. The goals: Aaron Kiil Olsen 26' for Valerenga, Bilal Njie 31' for KFUM Oslo, Bjorn Martin Kristensen (penalty) 55' for KFUM Oslo. On expected goals it finished 2.07–1.72.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave KFUM Oslo a 13.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.6% after a win, 13.3% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.
For Valerenga the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.2% going in: 12.1% after a win, 25.8% after a draw, 35.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on KFUM Oslo v Valerenga has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is KFUM Oslo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- KFUM Oslo win43%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Valerenga win32%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.