Universidad de Chile vs Nublense Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universidad de Chile 6-0 Nublense.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Universidad de Chile, 25% draw, 17% Nublense — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Chilean Primera División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Universidad de Chile at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. CastellónG
- 3I. LichnovskyD
- 22M. ZaldiviaD
- 5N. RamírezD
- 14M. MoralesD
- 20C. AránguizM
- 15T. ReinhartM
- 7M. GuerreroM
- 28A. ArceM
- 23I. VásquezM
- 11E. VargasF
- 32G. AñasgoM
- 8I. PobleteM
- 18J. LuceroF
- 17F. HormazábalF
- 6N. FernándezD
- 21M. DíazM
- 19J. AltamiranoM
- 1C. ToselliG
- 26Matias RiquelmeM
- 1N. PérezG
- 6P. CalderónD
- 5F. CamposD
- 15S. ValenciaD
- 8G. GracianiM
- 21L. ReyesM
- 28M. RiveraM
- 14J. CampusanoM
- 10M. PlazaF
- 20I. JeraldinoF
- 26E. CalderónF
- 22A. ValdésM
- 18D. CéspedesM
- 23J. GonzalezF
- 11L. MolinaF
- 25H. MuñozG
- 7F. OvelarF
- 9F. RamiF
- 13D. SaavedraM
- 3C. SalomónD
Form going into Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
Universidad de Chile
Primera División
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
Nublense
Primera División
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 22 | +25 | 51 |
| 10 | Nublense | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
- 12 April 2026Nublense 1–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 20 July 2025Nublense 2–2 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 15 February 2025Universidad de Chile 5–0 NublensePrimera División
- 20 November 2024Universidad de Chile 1–0 NublenseCopa Chile
- 3 November 2024Nublense 1–4 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Chile and Nublense
Universidad de Chile
GoalsAssists
- E. Vargas123
- A. Arce74
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universidad de Chile beat Nublense 6–0. The model had made a win for Universidad de Chile its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Maximiliano Guerrero 13' for Universidad de Chile, Maximiliano Guerrero 37' for Universidad de Chile, Agustín Arce 55' for Universidad de Chile, Gonzalo Ezequiel Reyna 73' for Universidad de Chile, Eduardo Vargas 75' for Universidad de Chile, Fabián Hormazabal 86' for Universidad de Chile. Sent off: Pablo Calderón (Nublense) 45+3'. On expected goals it finished 2.69–0.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad de Chile a 98.2% chance to finish in the top four: 99.5% after a win, 97.4% after a draw, 95.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.5%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
For Nublense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 2.3% going in: 8.3% after a win, 2.3% after a draw, 1.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.0%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universidad de Chile v Nublense has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is Universidad de Chile's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Universidad de Chile win58%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Nublense win17%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.