12 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Eleda Stadion, Malmö
Referee: Oscar Johnson
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Malmo FF 1-0 Kalmar FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Malmo FF, 25% draw, 20% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Malmo FF at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Malmo FF97%Draw3%Kalmar FF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Carl Gustafsson
🔁Jovan Milosavljevićout: Sead Hakšabanović
45'
Andrej Djuric
57'
68'
Miska Ylitolva
🔁Mayckel Lahdoout: Anders Christiansen
69'
69'
🔁Melker Hallbergout: Tobias Lauritsen
⚽Otto Rosengrenassist: Jens Stryger Larsen
72'
73'
🔁Abdussalam Magashyout: Noah Shamoun
73'
🔁vilmer tyrenout: Eskild Dall
🔁Anton Sebastian Höögout: Theodor Lundbergh
78'
🔁Daniel Gudjohnsenout: Emmanuel Ekong
78'
80'
🔁Victor Larssonout: Sivert Overby
80'
🔁Marius Soderbackout: Amara Camara
Emmanuel Ekong
88'
🔁Otto Rosengrenout: Bleon Kurtulus
88'

Match stats — Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

52%Possession48%
19Shots15
6On target4
6Corners4
1.33xG1.8

Goals against chances

Malmo FF1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kalmar FF0 from 1.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Malmo FF 4-3-3
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. Stryger LarsenD
  • 5A. ĐurićD
  • 44M. PålssonD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 7O. RosengrenM
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 28J. MilosavljevićM
  • 45A. HoogF
  • 32D. GuðjohnsenF
  • 15M. LahdoF
Substitutes
  • 10A. ChristiansenM
  • 27J. DahlinG
  • 11E. EkongM
  • 29S. HakšabanovićM
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 47Theodor LundberghM
  • 54A. SundgrenD
  • 42V. JeppssonM
Coach: G. Helstrup
Kalmar FF 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. BrolinG
  • 26M. YlitolvaD
  • 39L. SætraD
  • 4J. LöfgrenD
  • 2V. LarssonD
  • 17C. GustafssonM
  • 5M. HallbergM
  • 10M. SöderbäckM
  • 21A. MagashyM
  • 24C. SagoeM
  • 6V. TyrenF
Substitutes
  • 3S. ØverbyD
  • 23R. GojaniM
  • 12Z. RåvikD
  • 25N. ShamounM
  • 9M. StoltF
  • 22T. LauritsenM
  • 30J. KindbergG
  • 19E. DallF
  • 13Amara CamaraF
Coach: T. Koskela

Form going into Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

Malmo FF

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
  • W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
  • D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
  • L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026

Kalmar FF

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
  • L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Vasteras SK FK23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Kalmar FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Malmo FF28125114236+641
13Kalmar FF2875162442-1826

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

  • 20 July 2026Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 20 March 2026Malmo FF 1–1 Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 August 2024Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 24 May 2024Malmo FF 5–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 8 October 2023Kalmar FF 1–0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Malmo FF and Kalmar FF

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Kalmar FF

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Malmo FF beat Kalmar FF 1–0. The model had made a win for Malmo FF its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Otto Rosengren 72' for Malmo FF. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Malmo FF a 11.7% chance to finish in the top four: 14.3% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Kalmar FF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 50.9% going in: 35.8% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 56.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.5%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Malmo FF v Kalmar FF has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Malmo FF's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Malmo FF win55%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Kalmar FF win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.