FC Thun vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% FC Thun, 26% draw, 44% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Thun vs Lech Poznan
FC Thun
- L0-7away to Lech Poznan20 August 2026
- L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Thun and Lech Poznan in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Thun | Super League | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 7 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · Ekstraklasa
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Lech Poznan
- 20 August 2026Lech Poznan 7–0 FC ThunUEFA Europa League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: FC Thun and Lech Poznan
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.