27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% FC Thun, 26% draw, 44% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie. First leg: Lech Poznan 7–0 FC Thun (20 Aug) →

Lech Poznan went through 9–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Lech Poznan at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Thun4%Draw92%Lech Poznan4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽R. Gumnyassist: L. Palma
⚽S. Lengenassist: F. Dursun
22'
26'
🔁D. Hakansout: P. Walemark
Nico Maier
32'
40'
Gustav Berggren
⚽F. Dursunassist: N. Maier
43'
🔁T. Strannegardout: F. Fehr
46'
🔁F. Saizout: J. Roth
46'
46'
🔁A. Kozubalout: R. Murawski
53'
Patrik Wålemark
🔁N. Maierout: A. Ilic
56'
🔁F. Dursunout: R. Braschi
61'
67'
🔁A. Sayyadmaneshout: P. Rodriguez
68'
⚽P. Walemarkassist: M. Lis
🔁S. Lengenout: N. Reichmuth
73'
Louis Passavant 
75'
80'
🔁W. Monkaout: T. Yegbe
80'
🔁Y. Agneroout: F. Jagiello
90+1'
Mateusz Skrzypczak

Match stats — FC Thun vs Lech Poznan

40%Possession60%
3On target3
6Corners3

Line-ups

FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 37L. DahlerD
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 23M. BurkiD
  • 18T. StrannegardD
  • 30N. MaierF
  • 8F. SaizM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 22D. WaltiG
  • 5N. BurgyD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 16J. RothM
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 52A. IlicM
  • 58A. MaaroufiM
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian
Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 11D. HakansM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Substitutes
  • 35M. PruchniewskiG
  • 31W. ObremskiG
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 53K. DelikatM
  • 24F. JagielloM
  • 10P. WalemarkM
  • 56W. Szymczak
Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Form going into FC Thun vs Lech Poznan

FC Thun

All competitions we cover

  • L0-7away to Lech Poznan20 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
  • W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
  • L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
  • W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
  • W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
  • FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Lech Poznan

  • 20 August 2026Lech Poznan 7–0 FC ThunUEFA Europa League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

The result against the call

FC Thun and Lech Poznan drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lech Poznan at 44% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Gumny 17' for Lech Poznan, S. Lengen 22' for FC Thun, F. Dursun 43' for FC Thun, P. Walemark 68' for Lech Poznan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.