20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Ararat-Armenia.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Universitatea Craiova, 24% draw, 17% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie. Second leg: Ararat-Armenia v Universitatea Craiova, 27 Aug →

Ararat-Armenia went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Universitatea Craiova at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitatea Craiova5%Draw93%Ararat-Armenia2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽A. Malisassist: H. Oliveira
⚽N. Bancuassist: A. Cicaldau
33'
David Matei
39'
Oleksandr Romanchuk
47'
🔁A. Al Hamlawiout: S. Nsimba
62'
🔁D. Mateiout: M. Etim
62'
Adrian Rus
69'
🔁A. Cicaldauout: Teles
69'
69'
🔁Bennyout: Franca Carlos
75'
🔁H. Oliveiraout: J. A. Balanta
Monday Etim
78'
80'
🔁Z. Banjaquiout: Z. Shaghoyan
80'
🔁K. Muradyanout: M. Carlier
80'
🔁A. Serobyanout: A. Tera
🔁A. Mekvabishviliout: T. Baluta
85'
🔁S. Baiaramout: L. Basceanu
85'

Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia

58%Possession42%
7On target2
8Corners4

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3
  • 21L. PopescuG
  • 3O. RomanchukD
  • 28A. RusD
  • 6V. ScreciuD
  • 17C. MoraM
  • 5A. MekvabishviliM
  • 20A. CicaldauM
  • 11N. BancuM
  • 30D. MateiM
  • 9A. Al HamlawiF
  • 10S. BaiaramF
Substitutes
  • 1A. MaximG
  • 4A. CretuM
  • 7S. NsimbaF
  • 8T. BalutaM
  • 12M. EtimF
  • 18M. RadulescuM
  • 19Heriberto TavaresF
  • 23TelesM
  • 24N. StevanovicD
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3
  • 98Joao Bravim
  • 3Junior JulioD
  • 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 16E. GrigoryanD
  • 2H. OliveiraD
  • 70BennyM
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 77A. SerobyanM
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Z. BanjaquiM
Substitutes
  • 1A. NersesyanG
  • 5Luis FelipeD
  • 6M. AyvazyanM
  • 7Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 8J. A. BalantaM
  • 9A. EloyanF
  • 14B. PereiraD
  • 17M. CarlierM
  • 20A. TeraM
Coach: Tulipa

Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia

Universitatea Craiova

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Oțelul16 August 2026
  • W2-1KuPS13 August 2026
  • L0-1Arges Pitesti9 August 2026
  • D1-1away to KuPS6 August 2026
  • W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026

Ararat-Armenia

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Celje11 August 2026
  • W2-1Celje4 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers21 July 2026

What these results say

  • Universitatea Craiova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Universitatea Craiova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ararat-Armenia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ararat-Armenia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitatea Craiova and Ararat-Armenia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Universitatea Craiova at 59% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Malis 20' for Ararat-Armenia, N. Bancu 33' for Universitatea Craiova.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.